A nearly stationary frontal boundary acted as a focus for a few severe thunderstorms and heavy rain across the central part of New Jersey during the day on the 18th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PHI wrote it up.
A nearly stationary frontal boundary acted as a focus for a few severe thunderstorms and heavy rain across the central part of New Jersey during the day on the 18th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 2:54 AM EST, 3 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 354 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF A BIT. THEN, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING, TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN. A FEW OF THESE COULD POSSIBLY HAVE DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ONCE WE LOSE THE HEATING THIS EVENING, THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, WILL DIMINISH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM LATER AT NIGHT OR THURSDAY MRNG, SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS. SHOULD HAVE MORE SUN THURSDAY THAN TODAY, SO EXPECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES. STILL A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, AND WITH APPROACHING FRONT, COULD HAVE STRONG TSTMS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SPC ONCE AGAIN HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. COULD BE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS ALSO, ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND DEVELOPS A WAVE, WHEREAS THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND END THE PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW, WELL TONE DOWN THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST, BUT STILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONT SHOULD REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND DEVELOPS A WAVE, WHEREAS THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND ENDS THE PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY. FOR NOW, WELL TONE DOWN THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST, BUT STILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR SATURDAY. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT SORT THROUGH THE NEW HPC GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES. THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOLLOWING RADAR TRENDS, MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SCTD TSTMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AFFECT THE ABE/RDG TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH, NOT MUCH PCPN IS OBS, ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING IN CENTRAL MD. FOLLOWING THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO FIT TRENDS BETTER THAN THE NAM, MEANS FOLLOWING AN OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR MOST TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE HAZE AND LIGHT FOG THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH VSBY MAINLY 3-5 MI, ALTHOUGH PATCHY IFR FOG WILL ALSO SHOW UP. THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD SHOULD LIMIT ANY DENSER FOG FROM FORMING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NORTH SHOULD ALSO CAUSE CIG 2-3 THSD FT WITH VSBY ARND 3 MI, BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IS TSTMS MAKE IT TO ABE/RDG. NEW SHOWERS COULD ALSO FORM SOUTH, BUT THEY DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FARTHER NORTH. LATER THIS MORNING, THE SHORT WAVE THAT GENERATED THE EARLY MRNG PCPN LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE N/E. HOWEVER, A LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS NEARBY, ESP ABE/RDG. THEN THE DAYTIME WARMTH WILL ADD TO THE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION ALLOWING TSTMS TO REFORM AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN COULD CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AND SOME OF THE TSTMS MIGHT EVEN BECOME SEVERE. TONIGHT, SOME TRANQUILITY REDEVELOPS, AS TSTMS THAT FORM THIS AFTN SHOULD MOVE E AND DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. LIGHT FOG SHOULD FOG LATE TNGT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WHEREVER RAIN DOES FORM, VSBY COULD DROP BELOW 1 MI IN FOG. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, FOR NOW, THE LOW VSBY FOG WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FORECASTS. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME TSTMS COULD BECOME SVR THU AFTN AND EVENING. && .MARINE... A WARM FRONT MOVED NORTH OF THE REGION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST. DUE TO AN INVERSION ON THE WATER, WIND SPEEDS LOOK LIKE THEY REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KT AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD GET TO 5 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE TSTMS COULD BECOME SVR ON LAND AND THEN MOVE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DECREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA NEXT WEEKEND. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...RPW NEAR TERM...RPW SHORT TERM...RPW LONG TERM...RPW/GIGI AVIATION...RNS MARINE...RNS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 455 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010- 012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-190900- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 455 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...DELAWARE BAY WATERS...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. RPW
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain caused poor drainage flooding across western Monmouth county from Hazlet Township southwest through Millstone Township. The worst reported flooding was in Hazlet along both New Jersey State Routes 35 and 36. Doppler Radar storm total estimates reached around two inches in western Monmouth County.
In addition to the severe weather, the heavy rain that also fell from the thunderstorms caused poor drainage flooding in eastern Ocean County on the afternoon of the 18th. On Long Beach Island in Ship Bottom, Central Avenue was closed near its intersection with New Jersey State Route 72. One vehicle became stuck in a flooded jughandle off of New Jersey State Route 37 in Toms River. A Skywarn Spotter from Bayville had a storm total of 3.00 inches during that afternoon.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Jersey in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in New Jersey, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 52679, 52308.