Hail in Montana, June 28, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
829 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LACK OF MOISTURE THE BIGGEST INGREDIENT WORKING AGAINST ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO AREA FROM
IDAHO/WESTERN MT KEEPING ENERGY AND MOISTURE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA. LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST BUT AGAIN
ANY LIFT/CONVERGENCE FROM THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES INTO BILLINGS SINCE THESE FEATURES MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z
WHEN BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE. STOPPKOTTE

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR START OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PLACING
MONTANA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT...WARM WEATHER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FAR AND FEW BETWEEN WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE. HOWEVER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING SOME RELIEF AND A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY...WHICH IS SHAPING UP AS OUR BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. THE FLOW TURNS FLATTER INTO
MIDWEEK WITH A HINT OF A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW AROUND TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT ALLOWS A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW BUT IMPROVING FOR THIS SCENARIO AS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS DURING FOR MORNINGS
MODEL RUN. MAY NEED SOME LOW POPS FOR THAT BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...BUT DUE TO
COORDINATION EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE ZERO FOR NOW.

MODELS NOW HINTING THAT RIDGE AXIS WILL PUMP UP OVER OUR REGION
AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT FOR
LATTER PART OF EXTENDED...AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO CONTINUE
THAT TREND. TESAR

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BEGIN TO FORM NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF KBIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/097 063/084 060/091 061/090 063/089 061/092 060/092
    20/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    22/T
LVM 051/093 054/080 048/088 054/088 054/088 054/090 052/090
    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    20/B    02/T    22/T
HDN 059/099 062/087 058/094 059/093 061/091 060/093 058/093
    10/U    20/B    22/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    22/T
MLS 064/098 067/087 063/094 064/092 066/091 064/093 062/093
    10/U    22/N    22/T    22/T    20/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 064/097 064/087 062/095 063/094 065/091 063/093 062/093
    10/U    10/N    22/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    01/U
BHK 060/094 064/085 062/090 062/091 064/088 060/090 059/090
    10/N    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    10/U    01/U
SHR 056/095 059/086 056/093 057/092 059/090 059/093 057/093
    10/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS