A combination of warm weather, melting ice and snow, and frozen creeks led to water running off into ditches and low spots, and flooding some roadways.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
A combination of warm weather, melting ice and snow, and frozen creeks led to water running off into ditches and low spots, and flooding some roadways.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 2:43 PM MST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 243 PM MST MON FEB 5 2007 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT CHANGE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM WHITEHALL TO BOZEMAN. THAT CHANGE WILL BE A COLD AIRMASS SPREADING SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THIS COLD AIR TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN ALONG WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF BUT DIFFER ON ITS PLACEMENT. RIGHT NOW AM LEANING TOWARDS THE HEAVIER QPF FALLING OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. NOT SURE THAT A WARNING WILL BE NEEDED BUT MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR RIGHT NOW DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND ALSO DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR A HIGHLIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHT. OTHER THAN INCREASING POPS FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. BLANK .WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HAVE NOT MADE BIG CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TONIGHT AS MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE A DEEP LOW CONTINUES OVER HUDSON BAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WILL BRING MOIST PACIFIC AIR OVER A COLD SURFACE HIGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. DB SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM PROGRESSION DOWN BY ABOUT A DAY. I EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE. A FAIRLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION BECOMES WESTERLY BY MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS OUR PLAINS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE...WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR ZONES BEING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1850Z. A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE VFR LEVELS. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BRINGING LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME FOG SPREADING FROM THE NORTH. DB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 29 36 14 23 / 0 50 60 60 CTB 25 33 9 17 / 0 40 50 60 HLN 30 43 17 31 / 0 70 70 30 BZN 29 47 17 33 / 0 30 30 20 WEY 16 35 16 31 / 20 20 10 10 DLN 31 50 23 40 / 0 20 20 0 HVR 20 24 7 12 / 10 30 40 40 LWT 26 34 12 21 / 0 40 70 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...BLANK LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...DB WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 450 AM MST MON FEB 5 2007 MTZ009>014-044>051-053-054-061200- NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE- CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-TOOLE-LIBERTY- EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT- EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-BROADWATER-MEAGHER- 450 AM MST MON FEB 5 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AIRMASS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH MOIST PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WEEK SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A combination of snowmelt and frozen creeks led water to flow into low spots and poor drainage areas, flooding some rural roads and threatening homes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, February 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 15028.