Damaging Wind in Missouri, September 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH COVERED THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN MN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WAS PRODUCING ANOTHER WARM BREEZY DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST MO. LOCAL WRF MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
LINE. EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MO EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE STL METRO AREA LATE EVENING.

A WEAKER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. FAVORABLE PVA AND MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH DEEPER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE WESTERN U.S. NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE EUROPEAN
ON STRONG COLD FRONT. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE GFS FORECASTS THE FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO WHILE THE EUROPEAN
HAS FRONT FROM CENTRAL WI ACROSS NORTHWST MO.

TPS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS EVENING IS THE BROKEN
SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 40KTS...SO HAVE KEPT VRB40KT IN THE
KUIN AND KCOU TERMINALS AS THE STORMS PASS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...AS
THE SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WEAKENING SO I DONT THINK WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AFTER THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
PASS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH MAY SEE WRAP
AROUND MARGINAL CIGS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR A
SHORT PERIOD AFTER 06Z.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
316 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1