An isolated severe thunderstorm produced wind damage and large hail, over portions of northwest Missouri.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm produced wind damage and large hail, over portions of northwest Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 18, 6:07 AM CST, 7 hours 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 707 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007 ...UPDATED FOR AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL. CONVECTION FORMED YESTERDAY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PLAINS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WEST CONUS TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DUE TO SUBTROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION DID NOT HURT EITHER. CONVECTION SLOWLY PROGRESSED EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIATING SHORTWAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. WHILE THE WAVE IS SHEARING APART IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW...A DECENT 50 KT H8 JET HAS HELPED KEEP THE CONVECTIVE LINE FUELED WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER...THE SHEARING SHORTWAVE...AND WINDS PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTION...AND DRY AIR...ARE LIMITING THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTION EAST. WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE STORMS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI BY SUNRISE. RADAR TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY BEARING THIS OUT. FOR THE CONVECTION TO PUSH FARTHER EAST THAN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL REQUIRE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH THEN WHAT THE SHEARING WAVE TO OUR NORTH CAN PROVIDE IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS WE WILL BE WAITING FOR A SHORTWAVE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...INDUCING THE FLOW ALOFT TO VEER AND THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALL TAKE PLACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE MUCH OF NEBRASKA TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE FOCUSED THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WAS DUE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H3 JET ALOFT... ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOGIC CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG AS MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM-WRF STILL ADVERTISE THIS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WHILE CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL INHIBIT SOLAR INSULATION TODAY...MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER ARE STILL REASONABLE AS ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-35 GIVEN GOOD MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL BE RUNNING FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY RATHER BENIGN...BUT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON THEY COULD STEEPEN ENOUGH TO HELP SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. ALL THIS IMPLIES THAT THIS AFTERNOON STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS BEFORE MERGING INTO MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS TRANSITIONS TO EVENING. OF COURSE THIS IS PREDICATED ON THE IDEA THAT THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DOES NOT MUCK THINGS UP TOO MUCH. THIS ALL TRANSLATES INTO THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT ACROSS MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH RELOADS ON THE WEST COAST...ALLOWING RIDGING TO RETURN TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A WEAK WARM FRONT SLOWLY SLIDE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE. CUTTER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (50 KNOTS AT 2KFT AGL) WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE MIXING BREAKS THROUGH WHAT LITTLE INVERSION EXISTS. WINDS WILL RESUME BACK TO YESTERDAYS SPEEDS...AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 26 TO 28 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SLACKED QUICKLY TOWARD 00Z AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DECAYING COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FURTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD ST. JOSEPH. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY ON (22 TO 02Z)...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY BY MID EVENING. BOOKBINDER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-191800- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER- PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR- BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY- RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD- CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. WHILE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO PRINCETON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO MISSOURI AND STALLS. INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED LAST ALL NIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT THAT DISSIPATED REFORMS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO A LACK OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS TOO EARLY AT THE MOMENT TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE THREAT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FORM KANSAS CITY TO PRINCETON. DEROCHE
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:44 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Large maple tree uprooted and a large locust tree was shattered. Large tree limbs down with other trees as well.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, September 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 59874, 59880.