Drought in Minnesota, September 18 to 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
415 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WITH RESULTANT LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW I.E. WEAK LOW
LEVEL MIXING. UPSTREAM OF FEATURE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EVIDENT FROM ALBERTA PROVINCE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONTINUATION OF NEGATIVE
PHASE OF PNA OVER CONUS WITH 250MB JET MAX ALIGNED FROM
EASTERN CO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. EXAMINATION
OF SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL SITES SHOWED AREAS OF DENSE
FOG FROM THE RIVER VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA.

.MODEL INITIALIZATION...
MODELS THIS MORNING HAVE PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH GFS PERHAPS A TAD BETTER. BASED
ON THIS HAVE OPTED TO INCORPORATE GFS INTO SHORT TERM FCST
PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
FIRST PROBLEM AT HAND THIS MORNING IS DENSE FOG CONDITIONS.
BASED ON TRENDS AND CONTINUED WEAK MIXING VICINITY OF MEAN
TROUGH HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY EAST UNTIL 15Z THIS MORNING. REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MEAN 500MB TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO INDUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT ABOVE SCENARIO TO KEEP
REGION IN LINE FOR PERIODIC SHOTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN TROUGH. HAVE SHAVED
BACK POPS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT WITH THE BEST POPS CHANCES
I.E LOW LEVEL FORCING I.E. LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE BEST DAY FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
AS MUCH MORE VIGOROUS S/W TRAVERSES THE CWFA. FCST
CONTINUITY HAS THIS COVERED RATHER WELL THUS WILL NOT
DEVIATE ATTM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD SHOULD SHOW
NO DRAMATIC DEVIATION WITH DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN I.E
BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW...VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF MORE ROBUST S/W.

.LONG RANGE...
NO CHANGES MADE ATTM.

.AVIATION...
TOUGH GO OF IT THIS MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH DENSE FOG FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EAST. THIS
SHOULD AFFECT ALL 3 TAF SITES. AFTER 15Z EXPECT SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-
     027-030-039-053.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

PAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
539 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
539 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG FROM THE VALLEY EAST WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
NONE OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PAB