Hail in Missouri, May 7, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE POPS THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY
FORECAST.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND
MUCH RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE SHALLOW
DRY LAYER THAT WAS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN FAR WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP IN AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PULSY AND
SHOULD NOT ORGANIZE...THUS THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND INCREASING/DEEPENING MOISTURE...THE CHANCES OF AT LEAST
DIURNAL CONVECTION IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL INDICATE ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AND WILL LINGER IT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH INDICATE SOME LIFT AND MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT PERIOD. THE NAM IS IN
THE EVENING...AND THE GFS IS LATER...BUT FEEL THAT AN ALL NIGHT POP
IS WARRANTED.

SIMILAR STORY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE JURY IS STILL OUT
ON WHEN THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE...AND SOME DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL MOVE IN. HPC WAS INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...SO CONSIDERED GOING DRY THOSE DAYS. HOWEVER...CANNOT
SEE MUCH REASON TO SUPPORT THE DRYING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BOTH DAYS.

AS FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FAVORED THE MAV NUMBERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE ONE MORE COOLER NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH EASTERN SECTIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S...THEN LOW TO
MID 80S AND LOWER 60S WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
326 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A STRAY STORM MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOTION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRAY STORM MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DRS