Winter Weather in Missouri, January 31, 2007

Name: Winter Weather in Missouri, January 31, 2007
Start: 2007-01-31T21:00
End: 2007-01-31T23:59
Location: Missouri

January 31, 2007 · NWS PAH · 7 events in 7 counties and zones

The first measurable snow of the season occurred across parts of southeast Missouri. The snow amounted to about an inch.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.

The first measurable snow of the season occurred across parts of southeast Missouri. The snow amounted to about an inch. A southerly flow of warmer air aloft was the primary cause of the precipitation. Snowfall amounts were up to 1.5 inches at Doniphan in Ripley County. Elsewhere, one inch was reported at Poplar Bluff, Van Buren, Cape Girardeau, Perryville, and Wappapello. Roads became slick and hazardous, especially secondary roads.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 2:52 PM CST, 6 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 2:52 PM CST, 6 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW IS A FEW
HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. AT 20Z...SPOTTERS REPORTED SNOW ALREADY
BEGINNING IN CARTER AND RIPLEY COUNTIES IN SE MISSOURI. AT
19Z...STEADY SNOW WAS FALLING AT JBR/UNO/VIH. THE 09Z SREF AND 18Z
RUC ARE AMONG THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS AND APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON TIMING.  EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD SE MISSOURI BY AROUND
00Z...REACHING EVV AND HOP AREAS BY 06Z.

RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...WITH VSBY ON OCCASION ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT JBR AND
HRO. THE SNOW IS LIKELY TO VARY IN INTENSITY...AS SHOWN BY
VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 7 MILES OVER NRN ARKANSAS. THIS
AREA OF SNOW CORRELATES WELL WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 295K SURFACE. NAM/GFS
DEPICT THIS AREA OF ASCENT SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...EXITING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THURSDAY. HPC AND MODEL QPF GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS...INDICATING
AROUND ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS TONIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES TO GENERALLY
AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW. SREF INDICATES CLOSE TO ONE TENTH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT OVER FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH MAY YIELD A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF DRY POWDERY SNOW IN SPOTS.

AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN PRECIP AREA EARLY THURSDAY...A 500
MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS ONLY 24 TO 36 HOURS OUT. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF WEST
TENNESSEE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS SPREAD QPF INTO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THIS
FEATURE.

PROLONGED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH THAT PRECIP TYPE IS AN
ISSUE BY THURSDAY EVENING. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
WHILE SNOW SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DUE TO LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE RAPID SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...12Z MODEL QPF OF UP TO ONE
TENTH INCH OVER 6 HOURS LOOKS REASONABLE. THIS WOULD YIELD ANOTHER
INCH OR SO. A QUICK PEEK AT THE ARRIVING 15Z SREF GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY FURTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE HEAVIER WITH QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...VERSUS THE FURTHER SOUTH APPEARANCE OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND 09Z SREF RUNS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS AS IS.

AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE THURSDAY EVENING SHORTWAVE...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BRING SOME COLDER AIR
IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY. THIS RESULTS IN SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR REGION PER
THE NAM MODEL...AND CHANCE POPS IN GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES ARE
ALREADY MENTIONED.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS AND 06Z MREF DATA SUPPORT
A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL LEAD A LARGE
1040+ SURFACE HIGH INTO THE REGION...SO THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS INDICATES
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.  FOR NOW DECIDED TO LEAVE IT DRY AND WAIT FOR SOME
CONTINUITY BEFORE INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

MY/DRS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 3:54 PM CST, 5 hours 6 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
354 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-012200-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
354 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EAST...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SPOTTY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE
SNOW WILL CAUSE ADVERSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW TAPERS OFF TO FLURRIES THURSDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN CLOSE TO THE TENNESSEE AND
ARKANSAS BORDERS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END THURSDAY EVENING.

SOME FLURRIES...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ANY REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
ARE APPRECIATED.

MY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 31, 3:40 PM CST, 5 hours 20 minutes before

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

7 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Weather, Ripley

When: January 31, 9:00 PM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where: Ripley forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 36.653, -90.864 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Bollinger

When: January 31, 9:00 PM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where: Bollinger forecast zone
Reported by: Unknown
Coordinates: 37.322, -90.026 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Butler

When: January 31, 9:00 PM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where: Butler forecast zone
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 36.716, -90.407 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Cape Girardeau

When: January 31, 9:00 PM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where: Cape Girardeau forecast zone
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 37.384, -89.684 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Carter

When: January 31, 9:00 PM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where: Carter forecast zone
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 36.941, -90.962 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Perry

When: January 31, 9:00 PM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where: Perry forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 37.707, -89.824 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Wayne

When: January 31, 9:00 PM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where: Wayne forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 37.113, -90.461 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Winter Weather: Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Missouri in 2007 Every state in 2007 This day in weather history Warnings in Missouri, January 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 7198, 7199, 7202, 7203, 7204, 7207, 7211.