A slow-moving upper level trough approached the region by the 12th and did not pass east of the region until the 16th. Lots of warm and moist air was pulled north.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A slow-moving upper level trough approached the region by the 12th and did not pass east of the region until the 16th. Lots of warm and moist air was pulled north. At the surface, a cold front approached and only slowly moved east of the Mississippi River between the 13th and 14th. Numerous rounds of showers produced scattered flash flooding. Most counties reported a lot of standing water with many road closures. During a roughly 5 to 6 day timeframe, widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches were reported. Isolated amounts from 4 to 6 inches occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 13, 2:28 PM CST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 228 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007 .DISCUSSION... MANY CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE...BUT EVERYTHING SUGGEST THE GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM WITH ITS GREATER SENSITIVITY TO THE LOW LEVELS. THAT SAID...DID NOT THROW OUT THE GFS COMPLETELY. WITH EVERYTHING GOING ON...WILL TRY TO ADDRESS EACH PARAMETER INDIVIDUALLY. STARTING WITH THUNDER. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. 0-3KM MUCAPE WAS USED ALONG WITH 30+ K INDEX VALUES TO SUPPORT THIS THINKING. PLUS THERE ARE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES ON THE NAM OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THUNDER MENTIONED EVERYWHERE BUT THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS...AGAIN FOLLOWING K INDEX VALUES AND MUCAPE. DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS ALL FAVORABLE INDICES SUGGEST ANY THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF CWA. NAM WAS GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAINFALL...LOOKED AT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY PROCEDURES AND THEY SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS THE WAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50 KTS THIS EVENING WITH SPEED AND SOME DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WITH RAIN INCREASING AND INTENSIFYING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY SET UP ALONG A CGI-EVV LINE BY 00Z AND THEN SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WHICH WILL AID IN THE LIFT. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE ENDED. WINTRY PRECIPITATION...LOOKED AT BOTH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL THICKNESSES FOR THIS FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE 33 AT UNO AND 37 AT POF AND SAR WAS AT 34. WITH THE WAVE COMING UP AT US THIS EVENING WE FEEL THAT THE WARMER AIR WILL WIN OUT OVER OUR CWA. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LITTLE COLD AIR TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. AS THE MAIN WAVE PASSES TOMORROW NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL START TO ADVECT IN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE A LIGHT MIXTURE AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR MOVES IN...THE DEEP MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT IS LEAVING. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT. IN THE EXTENDED...FOLLOWED HPC CLOSELY...WHICH SEEMS TO FAVOR THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. LATEST GFS RUN HAD AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH THE ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE. THUS HAVE KEPT THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD DRY. WENT WITH COLDER ETA MOS TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES. MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES. IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES. IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES. && SPODEN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 353 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-141100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 353 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 MORE INCHES WILL ADD TO WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONLY HEIGHTENS THIS THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ADD ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...FOR A STORM TOTAL FORECAST OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA RIVERS...REFER TO THOSE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A MIXED BAG OF LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME LIGHT WINTRY ACCUMULATION IS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE IT ENDS MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 165 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:28 UTC.
7 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several secondary roads were flooded, mainly throughout the eastern portion of the county. Creeks were out of their banks and spreading across secondary roads in southeast Ripley County.
Flooding of creeks and roads occurred. Water was flowing across Missouri Highways 158 and 142 near Harviell and Neelyville. Both highways were closed. Water was reported over several secondary roads in the southern half of the county. Cane Creek overflowed west of Poplar Bluff, and the Little Black River and Pike Creek overflowed their banks.
Most secondary roads had 2 to 3 inches of standing water. Some gravel roads had as much as one foot of standing water. High water signs were posted on some roads. Most of the flooded roads were in the southern half of the county.
Street flooding was reported in the city.
Extensive flooding occurred in East Prairie. Over 5 inches of rain was measured at the city's water treatment plant over a four-day period. Several streets were flooded badly. Subdivisions around the outskirts of town were flooded, including some that flood very rarely. Water was over portions of U.S. Highway 60/62 east of Charleston.
Water was over several streets in the city.
Water was reported over a road near Wappapello Dam.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, January 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 8226, 8225, 8227, 8229, 8228, 8230, 8231.