Minor flooding was observed on the Grand River, from December 12 through December 13, 2007. Snow melt combined with rainfall caused the flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
Minor flooding was observed on the Grand River, from December 12 through December 13, 2007. Snow melt combined with rainfall caused the flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 12, 9:03 PM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 903 PM CST WED DEC 12 2007 .DISCUSSION... 00Z KTOP SOUNDING SHOWS SATURATION GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 2500FT AGL. WEAKLY UNSTABLE/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY. WEAK VERTICAL MOTIONS THROUGH THIS LAYER...THE TOPS OF WHICH ARE ON THE CUSP OF SUPPORTING ICE NUCLEI...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE CARRIED MENTION OF BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE...BUT NO POPS AS NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK VERTICAL MOTIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE BARELY KEPT FOG AT BAY WITH VISIBILITIES CONTINUING TO HOLD BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 MILES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CEILINGS NOW GENERALLY BELOW 500 FEET...NOT SURE HOW MUCH LONGER IT WILL REMAIN STRATUS. DENSE FOG WHICH DEVELOPED EARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS HAS REMAINED IN PLACE...BUT STRATUS SETTLING COULD VERY EASILY BRING WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT IF WINDS SUBSIDE. IF THIS OCCURS...COULD SEE LIGHT ICING OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES ONCE AGAIN. MADE SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT MINS AS READINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN SATURATION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. BOOKBINDER && .PREV DISCUSSION /421 PM CST WED DEC 12 2007/ STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO HANG PUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK MIXING WITHIN THE LOWEST 5KFT AND LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM NOVEMBER SUN. THINKING STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN BY TOMORROW MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINK MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE AREA TOMORROW...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERNLY SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION IN DIVING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS SWINGING THE SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT HEAVIER SNOW SWATH FURTHER NORTH. IN ADDITION...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DECENT AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT WITH HEAVIER TOTALS THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD ATTM WOULD BE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ON LATER SHIFTS. DEROCHE MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)... NOT MANY CHANGES INTRODUCED IN THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AFTER THE EARLY WEEKEND WINTER WEATHER EXITS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A LITTLE AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND EAST PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY A BIT BELOW NORMAL UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE WINDS SWING TO THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MAKER AFTER THIS WEEKEND MY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAR APART ON THE SOLUTIONS THEY OFFER...AS THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH QUICKLY THROUGH THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...AND GIVEN THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLES LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE SLOWER AND DRY SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...THAT IS THE WAY I HAVE GONE FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST. LEFT TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEPT IT DRY. CUTTER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT INTO THE MVFR RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN KANSAS CITY AS THE LOWER CEILINGS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. REMAINING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEAVE ALL THE TERMINALS AROUND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A LITTLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EXITING SURFACE RIDGE. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1258 PM CST WED DEC 12 2007 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-131900- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER- PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR- BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY- RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD- CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 1258 PM CST WED DEC 12 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OLATHE TO MARSHALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S TONIGHT...ALLOWING BLACK ICE TO ONCE AGAIN FORM ON MANY ROADWAYS. THOSE TRAVELING SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AS MANY UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL APPEAR TO BE DRY...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CLINTON TO BOONVILLE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...ALLOWING BLACK ICE TO REMAIN ON MANY ROADWAYS. THOSE TRAVELING SHOULD AGAIN USE EXTRA CAUTION AS ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE ALL INTERESTED PARTIES ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BATCH OF WINTER WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. DEROCHE
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Grand River near Sumner crested at 27.42 feet, or 1.42 feet above flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, December 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 70786.