Rip Current in Florida, December 12, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM/TODAY AND TONIGHT/PATTERN WILL
REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM RECENT DAYS. BREEZY EAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH ISOLATED FAST MOVING
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND DISSIPATING WHILE
MOVING FURTHER INLAND. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE WEATHER BECOMES CHANGEABLE THURSDAY AND BEYOND. NHC IS
FORECASTING T.S. OLGA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW
WHILE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE THU-FRI...SOUTH OF CUBA.
GFS/NAM AND ECMWF SHOW THAT...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF OLGA CONTINUES
WEST...THE TROUGH NORTH OF IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ELONGATED IN A SW TO NE FASHION WITH
TIME...DURING THE THU NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....WITH PWATS
SURGING UP TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOS POPS INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SREF POPS ARE ACTUALLY IN THE WIDESPREAD
CATEGORY. ECMWF PRECIP OUTPUT IS MORE BULLISH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...AND THE EXPECTED HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH...INCREASED POPS
THU-FRI...AND THIS TEND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED.

THE TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL FL SATURDAY...BUT WITH
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DUE TO MORE
INSTABILITY PRESENT.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LOOK
POSSIBLE...BUT LATEST GFS RUN HAS MUCH LESS WIND ENERGY WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WELL TO THE
NORTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE STRONGER
STORMS WITH THIS FRONT.

ANOTHER CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT IS THAT THE LATEST GFS RUN DOES NOT
SHOW A CLEAN SWEEP WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IN OTHER
WORDS...IT IS NOW SHOWING OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THUS...INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDINESS.
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHEN TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO GO BELOW NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE...ALONG WITH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN INLAND FROM KAPF.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. BUT DURATION
WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND SHOWERS TOO FAR AND FEW BETWEEN TO MENTION
ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT GFS IS HANDLING THE CURRENT WIND
FIELD FAIRLY WELL...SO WILL FOLLOW THIS GOING WITH 15 TO 20 KT
ACROSS THE BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST...WITH 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL RELAX THU-FRI AS A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A SFC
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH TIMING
NOW POINTING TO LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THEN ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE HIGH NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO NO
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  73  82  71 / 10 10 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 / 10 10 30 50
MIAMI            83  73  83  73 / 10 10 30 50
NAPLES           84  65  84  66 / -  -  20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

GREGORIA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
526 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-130000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
526 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG
WITH A LOW TIDE AROUND 4 PM WILL MEAN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES OF MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES TODAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THEN
ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CAUSE INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA