Hail in Missouri, April 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE AREA
HAS HELD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...EVEN IN
ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER. STRATUS IS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH DRIER AIR FROM ABOVE
AND BELOW.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...THE LATEST NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
STRATUS WILL FINALLY OVERCOME BATTLE WITH INHERENT DRY AIRMASS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...BASED ON NAM SOUNDINGS AND MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT
SOONER THAN THE NORMAL MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. BY AROUND 9
AM...LOOKS LIKE WEAK CAP WILL HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH FOR FREE
CONVECTION. SO ONCE THE COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON THIS
ENVIRONMENT...STORMS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY WITH HAIL
PRODUCTION AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND OVERALL
THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. WITH SUCH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHEN MIXING IS STRONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL HELICITIES WILL BE
MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT MAY DEVELOP.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE SPREADING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPILLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
MPH SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE
FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE NIGHT.

MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THICKNESS PROGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY A RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE LIMITED SO WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES
AROUND 25-30 PERCENT.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TO BE LOCKING INTO A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS COULD MEAN CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL
BE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO THE REGION. A
LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK AT 3000 FEET HAS FORMED AT THE KJLN TAF SITE
WITHIN THIS MOISTURE. THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS
MORNING INTO THE KSGF TAF SITE. A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE OVER THE
TAF SITES...AND THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT
THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN AND WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN
THE THUNDER CHANCES...HAVE INCLUDE VCTS AT BOTH TAF SITES.

BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO AROUND 10KT FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1130 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS... SOME MAY PRODUCE:
    HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL MISSOURI MID
  DAY...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
  THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

  DISCUSSION:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL INCREASE IN
  COVERAGE AND DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE
  HAIL...POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS TENNIS BALLS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
  ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
  POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
  SOUTHEAST OF AN OSAGE BEACH TO JOPLIN LINE.

  IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...NON THUNDERSTORM
  WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES THIS
  AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  THE MISSOURI OZARKS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
  MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHAST OF A WARSAW TO PITTSBURG
  KANSAS LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY/IZZI

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 109
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
738 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

MOC015-029-085-125-131-141-161-185-032100-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.A.0109.070403T1238Z-070403T2100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
109 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON                CAMDEN                HICKORY
MARIES                MILLER                MORGAN
PHELPS                ST. CLAIR

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...APPLETON CITY...CAMDENTON...
COLE CAMP...ELDON...HERMITAGE...LAKE OZARK...OSAGE BEACH...
OSCEOLA...ROLLA...VERSAILLES...VIENNA AND WARSAW.