Isolated severe thunderstorms developed over sections of coastal Mississippi ahead of a developing strong upper level trough.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LIX wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorms developed over sections of coastal Mississippi ahead of a developing strong upper level trough.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 18, 3:26 AM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 426 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007 .SHORT TERM... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 986MB LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN 65F AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND GREATER THAN 70F OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. IN ADDITION...AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AND AXIS OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 5H ANALYSIS REVEALED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SURFACE LOW WITH TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEAST TO ARKANSAS. JET ANALYSIS SHOWED A JET MAX OF 80 TO 90 KNOTS FROM OKLAHOMA TO MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER JET MEX OF 120 TO 130 KNOTS FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO OREGON. ATM OR SLIDELL SOUNDING AT 00Z THU SHOWED A CAPE VALUE OF 2100 J/KG AN INCREASE SINCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MARINE FORECASTER WILL SHOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT WEST THROUGH TODAY...ATM WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG TIL FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AND HELICITY VALUES DECREASE 100 M2/S2 TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE TORNADIC THREAT HAS DECREASED TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPEED SHEAR PROFILE WILL YIELD AN ATM CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO TODAY AND MORE STRUCTURED ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LINGER CONVECTION TIL 18Z FOR LAND AND 00Z FRI FOR MARINE. THICKNESS VALUES 1000 TO 700MB LOWERS NEAR 3000M AROUND 12 SAT AND INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY .LONG TERM... ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON TO GULF ACCORDING TO GFS. ECMWF HOLD THIS TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN MOVES THE LOW WEST. WILL GO GFS AND HPC AS WE DONT HAVE GOOD FEEL OF ECMWF PERFORMANCE DURING THIS FALL SEASON. AS A RESULT...THIS TROUGH WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. THICKNESS VALUES 1000 TO 700M DROP TO NEAR 2900M BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS OVER LAND AND MARINE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...TEMPS MAY NOT REFLECT THE PREDICTED THICKNESS VALUES NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOWER TEMPS IF NEEDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 66 82 50 / 30 60 20 10 BTR 86 67 83 54 / 30 60 20 10 MSY 86 72 83 62 / 40 60 30 10 GPT 84 71 83 57 / 40 60 30 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 820 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007 GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077- 080>082-181000- PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM- PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER 20-60 NM OUT- SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM- SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-AMITE- ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK- HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS- LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES- LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE- POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST- ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE- UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL- WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON- 820 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 22
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 55 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:44 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A tornado destroyed one mobile home and heavily damaged at least ten others in the Lucasville community just west of Vancleave. In addition, the tornado destroyed several outbuildings, snapped trees, and knocked down power lines.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Mississippi, 2007Warnings in Mississippi, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 62045.