Hail and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, June 8 to 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT FRIDAY JUN 8 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE FLUCTUATING SOME AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ALSO CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED ALONG A COLD
FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WAS APPROACHING NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FOR THE
LOCAL AREA VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED
SOME ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLY BY A GRAVITY WAVE. ANYHOW THE CONVECTION IS
NOT MAINTAINING ITSELF VERY WELL.  EXPECT THE INSTABILITY TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING./17/

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST TO AID IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...WHEN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY WILL BE LOST. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET. AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. PROFILERS SHOW THAT
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY BRING SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG. STRATUS SHOULD BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TONIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WEATHER WATCH TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERN WITH LOWS LAST NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 70S. WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

FOR SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY(CAPES OF AROUND 3500 J/KG...MIDLEVEL WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS) FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE...GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS. WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SCATTERED
POPS. ONCE AGAIN MODELS HAVE SOME RAIN COOLED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IN
SOME LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 90S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION MOVES QUICKLY TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBUILD ITSELF ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS. SO WILL PUT IN ISOLATED EARLY EVENING POPS. WE WILL
GET SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST./17/

.LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
PRODUCING A POTENTIAL ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER SRN ZONES
OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING REMAINS SOLID
ACROSS THE AREA AND MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING DRIER AIR
SWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY IN NWLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE LOWER LEVEL HIGH CENTER. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS ADVERTISED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN RIDGING
IS ERODED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE STRONGER PORTION OF
THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND FORCING AT LOWER LEVELS
REMAINS WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH. SURFACE/850 MB RIDGING REMAINS PERCHED
NEAR THE COAST LINE AND WLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT LOWER
LEVELS...LIMITING LOW LEVEL GULF INFLOW. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND...KEEPING GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

COOLED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WARM...GENERALLY MID 90S...FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN INTO
THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  71  94 /  24  46  20  16
MERIDIAN      73  93  68  94 /  25  48  20  16
VICKSBURG     75  93  72  95 /  27  41  20  17
HATTIESBURG   75  93  71  94 /  22  57  20  16
NATCHEZ       74  91  72  92 /  24  47  20  16
GREENVILLE    75  92  70  93 /  37  36  20  17
GREENWOOD     74  92  70  92 /  33  38  20  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.

LA...NONE.

AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
117 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091830-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
117 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION OF THE
ARKLAMISS. THIS WILL BE FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO GREENWOOD AND GRENADA MISSISSIPPI.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S AND SUPPORT HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AND
INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL ASSIST IN ORGANIZING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS OF WHICH A FEW MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE
REGION. OTHERWISE NO ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
JUNE 15.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
522 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

MSZ066-082250-
JONES MS-
522 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...INTENSE THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEAST JONES COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY 6 MILES NORTH OF MILL CREEK AT 522 PM CDT...AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST JONES
COUNTY THROUGH 550 PM. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...THIS STORM ALSO
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN JONES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
534 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-082315-
BOLIVAR MS-SUNFLOWER MS-GRENADA MS-LEFLORE MS-CARROLL MS-
WASHINGTON MS-HOLMES MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
534 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...STORMS GAINING STRENGTH OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 27 MILES
NORTH OF HOLCOMB TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LELAND AT 534 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD
GRENADA...GREENWOOD AND LEXINGTON MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN BOLIVAR...CARROLL...GRENADA...HOLMES...HUMPHREYS...
LEFLORE...SUNFLOWER AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

BYB