Hail in Minnesota, August 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
526 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2007

.UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MN ATTM...AND IS JUST A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE JUST ISSUED AN UPDATE TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY DOWN INTO
NORTHWEST MN. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS WANT TO BRING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY DOWN INTO THE KGFK AREA...BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT FOR NOW
AND SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES. UNLESS MORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ON THE
FAR WESTERN EDGE...KGFK SHOULD BE SAFE. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2007/

SHORT TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN S MB AND ANOTHER LOW IN W WI. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO KEPT CONTINUITY AND LEANED TOWARD GFS
SOLUTION FOR FORECAST. S MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
E THIS EVENING. ONLY POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN FAR NE
COUNTIES NEAR BDE EARLY THIS EVENING...CLOSEST TO THE LOW.
OTHERWISE...S RETURN FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS THE 500MB RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE N PLAINS. THUS...CONTINUED CURRENT
FORECAST TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT...WITH TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR 90 BY SAT.

THEN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS PULLING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS ND
ON SAT NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

LONG TERM...(MON-THU)...MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...CONTINUE
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY LAST 2 DAYS. ECMWF ALSO CLOSE TO GFS
IN SURFACE FEATURES AND 12Z RUN FOLLOWED CLOSELY. NEXT THREAT OF
TSRA WITH BOUNDARY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA MONDAY...WITH UPPER WAVES
FOR SUPPORT. TIMING DIFFICULT BUT EXPECT A BREAK OF SORTS LATER TUE
INTO WED AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN...WITH NEXT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE
WED. LIKE THE SLOWER GFS...BUT AT DAYS 6 AND 7 WILL HAVE TIME TO
WATCH. EXPECT WARMEST WEATHER EARLY IN WEEK AS A WEAK BOUNDARY OF
SORTS DROPS IN UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF MID WEEK WAVE.

AVIATION...WITH FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS EXPECT SKC OR SCT 060-080
OVERNIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY DROPPING S...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND TURN NE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GODON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
601 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-311115-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
601 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS THE THREAT THAT A FEW STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DK