Dust Storm and Damaging Wind in Nevada, August 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A DAILY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SILVER STATE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN END
TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ACTIVE TSTM DAY IN STORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NERN NV AS MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE INTO NERN NV FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN OVER NERN NV WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE. CURRENTLY SATELLITE PICS AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION EQUIPMENT SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF TSTM ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL
CNTRL CA ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN MODEL SOLUTION. ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTN TSTMS ONCE AGAIN.  CEC

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN START TO
DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW UPPERLEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEKEND. WITH WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NE AND
EAST CNTRL NV. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE 50S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW UPPERLEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING AND
DRIFTING FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING MID TO UPPERLEVEL FLOW TO VEER INTO
THE WEST BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. EXPECT
MOISTURE TO PUSH EAST WITH THE RISK OF AFTERNOON TSTORMS DIMINISHING
BY MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...00Z OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS SIGNS OF
THE FIRST MAJOR COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NW
ON TUESDAY AND DIGGING SOUTH TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY INTO NRN NV.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER
THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH ECMWF SHOWS UPPERLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO THE GFS. WITH THE GFS REMAINING PERSISTENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE ENSEMBLE RUNS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...STARTED LOWERING TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT AS LOW AS
MOS. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE AND NW TO SE MOVEMENT. TT
&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPERLEVEL
DISTURBANCE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON AND PUSH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING WELL INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THESE TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
KTPH...KELY...AND LATER THURS AFTERNOON AT KEKO.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ACTIVE TSTM DAY IN STORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NERN NV AS MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE INTO NERN NV FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN OVER NERN NV WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE. MOST STORMS WILL BE WET AS PW
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 3/4 INCH. CURRENTLY SATELLITE PICS AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION EQUIPMENT SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF TSTM ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL
CNTRL CA ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN MODEL SOLUTION. ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTN TSTMS ONCE AGAIN. CEC
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.