Hail, Berrien
- When
- October 18, 6:42 PM EST to 6:43 PM EST
- Where
- Berrien County, Niles
- Measured
- 0.75 in hail
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 41.830, -86.250
Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, October 18, 2007
A combination of strong dynamics, wind shear, and rapid low level moisture return all combined to produce severe weather throughout portions of extreme Southwest Michigan. No tornadoes were observed, but reports of wind damage were received.
Where it happened
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $13,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 5
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A combination of strong dynamics, wind shear, and rapid low level moisture return all combined to produce severe weather throughout portions of extreme Southwest Michigan. No tornadoes were observed, but reports of wind damage were received.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 18, 4:12 PM EST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 18, 4:12 PM EST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
512 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 724. ONGOING FORECAST
ALREADY INDICATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
OTHERWISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007/
NEAR TERM...
..DANGEROUS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS IMMINENT...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IMMINENT ACRS ERN/CNTRL IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS
SECONDARY SW OVR MO STEAMS NEWD W/CORRESPONDING INCREASING FORCED
ASCENT. 18Z SPECIAL SNDG SHOWS DRAMATIC MID LVL COOLING IN RESPONSE
TO THIS FEATURE AND ALREADY VIS SAT SHOWING AGGRAVATED CU DVLPMNT AND
ISOLD SHRA ATTM FM NE IL INTO SW MI IN RESPONSE TO ROBUST SFC
DESTABILIZATION THAT HAD OCCURRED WITHIN DRYSLOT OF DEPARTING LEAD
WAVE AND ENHANCED BY SIG NWD LL MSTR RTN OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ALL THIS COMBINED W/DRAMATIC DEEP LYR SHEAR...MID LVL WIND
MAX 120 KTS...AND AUGMENTED THROUGH SFC BACKING IN CONJUNCTION
W/INCREASING MID LVL HGT FALLS ASSOCD W/UPR TROUGH SUGGESTS EXTREME
HIGH END DAMAGING WIND EVENT W/POSSIBILITY OF LONG LIVED SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING ONCE STORMS GET GOING.
WILL EXPAND ZFP TORNADO MENTION EWD TO INCLUDE NW OH FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WHICH WAS LEFT OUT OF EARLIER UPDATE GIVEN EARLIER STORM
INITIATION WINDOW. IN ADDITION...WILL EXTEND SVR MENTION A BIT LTR
TO ACCOUNT FOR BIT LATER FROPA. OTHERWISE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT GIVEN NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SOME
STABILIZATION IN THE BNDRY LYR SO WILL LET EARLIER ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY PLAY OUT AT 00Z.
SHORT TERM...
0600 UTC TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CONVECTION LOCATION AND MOVEMENT WILL BE CRITICAL TO DETAILED GRIDS
FROM 06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT. USING NAM12 AND EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT
CONDITIONS HAVE TRIED TO TIME CONVECTION THROUGH AREA. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS POST FRONTAL THOUGH DRY SLOT LOOKING PRETTY GOOD. COULD BE
SOME MORNING SUN IN DRY SLOT BUT NOT TRYING TO GET FANCY WITH THIS.
MID SHIFT CAN OBSERVE SAT TRENDS AND PENCIL IN AS NECESSARY. COLD
POOL ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW ANY BREAKS TO FILL IN ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE PASSES MID DAY AND COULD HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST.
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH FROPA BUT TEMPS MAY
STAY IN LOWER TO MID 60S EAST TIL CLOSE TO 12Z. EXPECT LITTLE
DIURNAL RISE ON FRIDAY UNLESS SUNSHINE FOR A FEW HOURS CAN OCCUR IN
DRY SLOT. OTHERWISE ABOUT A 3 TO 5 DEGREE RISE...IF THAT.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL HINGE ON
THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THE COMET/UCAR 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE FOR 2
METER TEMPS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE DIFFICULTY THE GFS HAS IN
HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AFTER MONDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BECOME MUCH
BELOW NORMAL. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN ECMWF SUPPORTED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SW CONUS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS OPEN TROF. IN SOMEWHAT
OF AN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONTRAST...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SW
CONUS. HOWEVER...FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR A MORE GFS SUPPORTED
SOLUTION THAT INCLUDES A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD STILL BE MILD IN
DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 THETA E VALUES ATTEMPT TO RISE
ABOVE 325K. OTHERWISE...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007/
AVIATION...
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDS FOR FIRST HOUR OF TAFS AT BOTH SITES
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS UNTIL MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES
LATER WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. PREVIOUS TAFS ON TRACK WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. MINOR CHANGE TO MOVE BACK VCTS GROUP A COUPLE OF HOURS AS
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL CAPPED WEST OF THE CWA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL REMAIN A FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AFTER 6Z EXPECT A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN WINDS TO SW BUT GUSTS WILL STILL BE LIKELY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-032.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
NEAR TERM...HOLSTEN
UPDATE...SKIPPER
AVIATION...SIMPSONHazardous weather outlook, Oct 18, 10:13 AM EST, 8 hours 29 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1113 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-191515- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 1113 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007 /1013 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HILLSDALE TO PORTLAND. SOUTH WINDS WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX LMZ043-046-191515- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 1113 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. THE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE SATURDAY. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP
In the hours before
Local storm report, Oct 18, 5:39 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
639 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0638 PM TSTM WND GST MONON 40.86N 86.88W
10/18/2007 E60 MPH WHITE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNY SIZE HAIL
0638 PM HAIL MONON 40.86N 86.88W
10/18/2007 E0.75 INCH WHITE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNY SIZE HAIL
&&
EVENT NUMBER 00014
EVENT NUMBER 00015
BJSLocal storm report, Oct 18, 5:56 PM EST, 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
656 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0638 PM HAIL MONON 40.86N 86.88W
10/18/2007 E1.75 INCH WHITE IN EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
EVENT NUMBER 00016
BJSLocal storm report, Oct 18, 6:05 PM EST, 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
705 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0657 PM HAIL 12 S KNOX 41.12N 86.62W
10/18/2007 M1.00 INCH PULASKI IN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER 00017
SKIPPERLocal storm report, Oct 18, 6:10 PM EST, 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
710 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0709 PM HAIL KNOX 41.29N 86.62W
10/18/2007 E1.00 INCH STARKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER 00019
BJSLocal storm report, Oct 18, 6:33 PM EST, 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0726 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 S FULTON 40.93N 86.26W
10/18/2007 FULTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUD FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS
JUST SOUTH OF FULTON
&&
EVENT NUMBER 00020
BJSThe radar
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:40 UTC.
Event by event
3 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm Wind, St. Joseph
- When
- October 18, 7:15 PM EST to 7:16 PM EST
- Where
- St. Joseph County, Sturgis
- Measured
- 55 kt (63 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $10,000
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 41.800, -85.420
Several trees and power lines down in and around Sturgis.
Thunderstorm Wind, Berrien
- When
- October 18, 8:05 PM EST to 8:06 PM EST
- Where
- Berrien County, Niles
- Measured
- 55 kt (63 mph) estimated gust
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 41.830, -86.250
Two trees were blown down in the town of Niles.
Hail, Berrien
- When
- October 18, 8:06 PM EST to 8:07 PM EST
- Where
- Berrien County, Niles
- Measured
- 1 in hail
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 41.830, -86.250
Thunderstorm Wind, Cass
- When
- October 18, 8:45 PM EST to 8:46 PM EST
- Where
- Cass County, 0.51 mi W of Indian Lake
- Measured
- 55 kt (63 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $3,000
- Reported by
- Amateur Radio
- Coordinates
- 42.000, -86.210
A tree was blown down across street and onto adjacent power lines.
What these are
- Hail
- Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
- Thunderstorm Wind
- Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
- Tornado and Hail in Michigan, October 18, 2007
- Tornadoes and Hail in Kentucky, October 18, 2007
- Tornadoes and Hail in Indiana, October 18, 2007
- Tornadoes and Hail in Michigan, October 18, 2007
- Tornadoes and Hail in Indiana, October 18, 2007
- High Wind and Strong Wind in Washington, October 18, 2007
- Tornadoes and Hail in Kentucky, October 18 to 19, 2007
- Tornadoes and Hail in Michigan, October 18 to 19, 2007
- Tornado in Florida, October 18, 2007
- Tornado and Damaging Winds in Alabama, October 18, 2007
- Tornado and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, October 18 to 19, 2007
- Damaging Winds in Illinois, October 18, 2007
More
Every storm in Michigan in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, October 2007
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 59345, 59347, 59348, 59346, 59349.