Lake effect snow showers deposited heavy snowfall in the northwest wind snowbelts of west and north central Upper Michigan from the evening of the 18th through the evening of the 19th.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
Lake effect snow showers deposited heavy snowfall in the northwest wind snowbelts of west and north central Upper Michigan from the evening of the 18th through the evening of the 19th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 18, 4:45 PM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007 .SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY) LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS NOW EXITING FAR EAST CWA AND ATTN IS NOW FIRMLY TO WEST ON INCOMING SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH/H85 COLD FRONT. SNOW TIED TO THESE FEATURES IS PRESSING STEADILY EASTWARD AND HAS MADE IT TO CNTRL UPR MI AS OF 21Z. WINDS VEERING NW OVR FAR WEST PORTION OF LAKE. COLD AIR POISED PLUNGES INTO UPR LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RESULTANT NW FLOW LK EFFECT SNOW RAMPING UP. HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY OVR PLAINS INTO CNTRL CANADA MOVES INTO UPR LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH LK EFFECT SNOW. SHORTWAVE OVR FAR SW CONUS EVENTUALLY MAY AFFECT THE WEATHER HERE LATER THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH CROSS THE ARAE. GENERAL QPF UP TO 0.03 INCHES WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS 20:1 GIVE LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW. OVER NW CWA FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GIVE BOOST TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. VIS SATELLITE STILL SHOWS DOMINANT BAND OF SNOW LURKING OFFSHORE OF KEWEENWAW. AS TROUGH COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS BAND TO SWEEP ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND SINK INTO NORTHERN ONTANAGON AND BARAGA COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT A QUICK 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS CONVERGENCE BAND AS IT MOVES THROUGH. EVENTUALLY...WINDS BECOME NW WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER AND INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO AROUND 5KFT AS TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION LOWER BLO -15C AFTER MIDNIGHT. LK EFFECT SHOULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS DELTA T/S REACH TOWARD 20C. GENERALLY EXPECT PURE LK EFFECT SETUP OVERNIGHT AS NEXT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE TIL LATE TONIGHT. AREAS THAT SEE GREATEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (ROCKLAND TO TWIN LAKES AND WETMORE TO NEWBERRY) SEE THE MOST SNOW WITH 12 HOUR AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOULD INCREASE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE FURTHER COOLING AND RAISING OF INVERSION AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. TRACED THIS SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TO H7 TO CNTRL MANITOBA AND 12Z CYQD SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH SNOW OCCURRING UPSTREAM...INCREASING INVERSION AND TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION LOWERING TO -20C WILL PROMOTE MODERATE-HEAVY LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. DRYING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST. CONVERGENCE PROGGED TO REMAIN MAXIMIZED IN SIMILAR AREAS AS TONIGHT...SO SOME DOMINANT BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD MATERIALIZE...AS LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODEL HINTS TOWARDS. HEADLINES...EASTERN CWA LK EFFECT WARNINGS LOOK FINE. LONGER OVER WATER FETCH LEADS TO BETTER FLUXES AND HIGHEST INVERSIONS (6-8KFT) SEEMS PRETTY CERTAIN SOME AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 10 IN 24 HOURS. WEST WAS MORE OF A QUESTION. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED TO LK EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ONTONAGON THROUGH BARAGA COUNTIES DUE TO THE MORE PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE AND HINT OF DOMINANT BANDING. ADVY LEFT ALONE FOR REST OF W AND NW CWA. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CONTINUED TO MENTION THIS IN THE WSW STATEMENT. .LONG TERM...(FRI NIGHT THROUGH THU) MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SUN INTO MON AND LES POTENTIAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...LES INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS...PER NAM/GFS FCST SNDGS. GENERALY 320 CBL FLOW WITH A LONGER FETCH WILL STILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE FOR SIGNFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WHERE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. RIDGING WITH ACYC LOW LVL FLOW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO NEAR 3K FT(850 MB DRYING) INTO W LK SUPERIOR...EPECIALLY AFT 06Z WILL ALLOW LES TO TAPER OFF EARLIER WITH ONLY 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WINDS BACK QUICKLY AS THE SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A END TO THE LES FROM W TO E WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO AT MOST OVER THE EAST DURING THE MORNING EAST OF MUNISING. SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LAKE CLOUDS WILL DEPART...SSW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH. SUN AND SUN NIGHT...12Z GLBL MDLS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE MID LVL LOW FROM THE SW CONUS MOVING TO NE KS OR NRN MO BY 12Z AND TO THE SRN LAKES SUN NIGHT. THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH A MORE NRLY TRACK AND WAS DISCOUNTED. WITH THE MAIN SHRTWV DYNAMICS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA...MDLS ONLY BRING WEAK TROF THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THE MDLS SHOW MAINLY ACYC LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ONLY LOWER CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR NOW. MON INTO TUE...MDLS SPREAD INCREASES WITH THE HANDLING OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE MORE AMPLIFIED 12Z ECMWF WOULD DELAY THE FROPA AND ONSET OF LES BUT COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW WITH A MID LVL TROF MON FOLLOWED BY HEAVIER NRLY FLOW LES REGIME MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE LESS PHASED 12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE NRN STREAM TROF AND BRINGS MUCH LESS COLD AIR WITH STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNFICANT LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. THE UKMET/CANADIAN REPRESENTED MORE OF A COMPROMISE. TIL MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT....LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH HIGHER END -SHSN CHANCES OVER NRN UPR MI WITH A DIMINISHING TREND TUE. WED-THU...MDLS WERE CONSISTENT WITH PATTERN AMPLIFICATION TOWARD MID WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHRTWV TO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FOLLOWED BY A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH WOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED SNOWBELTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ002-004- 084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ014. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MIZ009. && JLA(SHORT TERM) JLB(LONG TERM)
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 442 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007 MIZ001>007-009-014-084-085-192145- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- GOGEBIC-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-SOUTHERN HOUGHTON- NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 442 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007 /342 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH UPPER MICHIGAN. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME HEAVY FOR SNOWBELTS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM ROCKLAND TO TWIN LAKES AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF MARQUETTE FROM AU TRAIN AND MUNISING TO NEWBERRY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FOR INFORMATION ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. AGAIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN WEST UPPER MICHIGAN FROM ROCKLAND TO TWIN LAKES AND EAST OF MARQUETTE...FROM AU TRAIN TO NEWBERRY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE....WILL CONTINUE CREATING AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBIILITY. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FOR INFORMATION ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED. LSZ221-241>248-263-264-192145- KEWEENAW BAY AND HURON BAY FROM LOWER ENTRANCE LIGHT TO PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLANDS MI-SAXON HARBOR WI TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI- MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR, EAST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE, MN, TO A LINE NORTHWARD FROM MANITOU IS. MI, BEYOND 5 NM AND SOUTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR, EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU IS. MI NORTHWARD BEYOND 5 NM AND SOUTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER, EXCLUDING WHITEFISH BAY- 442 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007 /342 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. LMZ221-248-262-192145- BAY OF GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- LAKE MICHIGAN...FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE...SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE TO THE MID- LINE OF THE LAKE- 442 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. MIZ010>013-192145- IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA- 442 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007 /342 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. JLB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Ten to twelve inches of snow was reported in 24 hours by an observer just south of Shingleton.
Ten inches of snowfall was observed in 24 hours at Rockland.
Ten inches of snowfall was observed in 24 hours at Painesdale.
Munising reported a 12-hour snowfall amount of eight inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, January 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 10681, 10682, 10686, 10680.