High Wind in Maine, October 20, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT BRINGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND HVY RAFL POTENTIAL.

TOOK THE SREF UP TO 06Z AS IT HAS BEEN HANDLING THINGS THE BEST
ESP W/THE POPS AND WINDS HOLDING THINGS BACK A BIT. A BLEND OF THE
SREF/GFS AND THE NAM WAS TAKEN FROM 06-12Z W/THE HEAVIEST RAFL
SITUATED IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS (MTNS & THE WRN AREAS).
THIS ALIGNS CLOSE TO THE THINKING OF HPC. STORM TOTAL WILL BE
CLOSE TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE WRN AND UPSLOPE AREAS WITH .75 TO 1 INCH
ELSEWHERE. LLVL JET OF 50-55 KTS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE REGION
WILL HELP TO AID IN HVY RAFL. DECIDED ON KEEPING THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE CWA ESP DOWNEAST ON UP THROUGH THE CNTL AND WRN
AREAS AS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE OF 250-300 J/KG.
TTS HIT AROUND 48 W/LIS APCHG 0 AND KIS IN THE MID 30S.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MEZ029-030.
HVY RAFL/CONVECTION W/THAT STG LLVL JET WILL ALLOW FOR STG WIND
GUSTS 50+ MPH. DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK THE TIMING OF THE WINDS TO
AFT 06Z ACROSS THE COAST AND EXTREME ERN AREAS AS LATEST MODELS
NOT HANDLING POTENTIAL OF SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT ALONG THE ATLC COAST AND THEN MOVING NE. LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO GOOD ALIGNMENT OF WINDS UP THROUGH
10K FT FROM SSE MAINLY FROM JONESPORT TO EASTPORT. STG SPD SHEAR
IS THERE AS WELL AS WELL AS STG INFLOW OF THETA E AIR FROM 925-850
MBS (335+). WINDS WERE ALSO INCREASED FOR THE WRN AND NRN AREAS
USING THE AFOREMENTIONED BLEND OF THE GFS/SREF & NAM BUT KEPT
THINGS BLO ADVISORY LVLS.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE REACHED EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN WILL RISE LATER
TONIGHT AS STG WAA LIFT N W/THE WARM FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY MORNING AS OCCLUDED FRONT
AND TRIPLE POINT MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
EVENTUALLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS LATER SATURDAY
MORNING IN CYCLONIC FLOW AS PRIMARY LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
WILL POPULATE SKY AND POP GRIDS BASED ON A 50/50 MODEL BLEND OF
THE GFS40 AND NAM12. HAVE USED THE MAV FOR LAND TEMPERATURES AND
NAM12 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND GRIDS GENERATED WITH A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND NAM12.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT OVER THE SPEED OF THE MOVEMENT AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF A LOW OVER QUEBEC PROVENCE CANADA. TOOK A BLENDED
APPROACH...ECMWF INDICATING INCREASED POPS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
CROWN OF MAINE EARLY TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR COGNITIONS THIS EVENING FROM S TO N AND THEN
ALL SITES WILL GO TO IFR BY 02Z OR SO. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL GO QUICKLY
TO VFR AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND SHEAR IS THERE MAINLY AFT 03Z FOR KBGR AND KBHB. IT
SHOULD BE NO LONGER THAN 3 HRS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY WITH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AS STATE ABOVE...THE BLEND OF THE SREF/GFS & NAM WAS
USED FOR THE WINDS THROUGH SAT. BOOSTED WIND GUSTS WELL INTO GALE
CRITERIA AND KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 34KT THROUGH SAT MORNING AND
THEN HAVE CONDITIONS FALLING BACK AS LLVL JET EXITS INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. WNAWAVE MATCHING PRETTY CLOSE PER LATEST CONDITIONS AND
WAS FOLLOWED.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A 50/50 NAM12 AND GFS40 MODEL CONSENSUS TO
INITIALIZE THE WIND GRIDS. WITH GENERALLY A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
THRU THIS PERIOD DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MODEL BIAS SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO SPEEDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE TO DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER. HAVE RAISED WAVE
HEIGHTS 1 FOOT ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT LOW BIAS
EXPECTED IN THIS SITUATION.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 12 NOON
     SATURDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/NORTON

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