High astronomical tides combined with a weak low pressure system,(1010 mb) which traveled through the Gulf of Maine on the afternoon of the 16th. Northeasterly marine winds subsided from gale force during the afternoon to less than 10 kts near the time of high tide resulting in minimal coastal flooding.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GYX wrote it up.
High astronomical tides combined with a weak low pressure system,(1010 mb) which traveled through the Gulf of Maine on the afternoon of the 16th. Northeasterly marine winds subsided from gale force during the afternoon to less than 10 kts near the time of high tide resulting in minimal coastal flooding. The tide reached 12.01 feet in Portland Harbor. What was left of Surf St. in Saco, (York County) was briefly inundated resulting in 10,000.00 in damage. No damage was reported in Cumberland County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gray, ME wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 6:44 PM EST, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 744 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT PRODUCING A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF A CONCORD TO PORTLAND LINE...WITH CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THIS. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL IS RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ELSEWHERE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF...AS BOTH AREAS RESPOND TO THE MOVEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW...ALONG THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH IN THE CONVECTION. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THAT COLDER AIR IS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUPPORTING SNOW. HOWEVER...23Z SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN MODEL PROGS...SUGGESTING THESE THICKNESSES MAY BE TOO COLD. ALSO...IT MAY BE TOO WARM ALOFT (-5 TO -10 C) FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION WHERE THE MOISTURE IS. THIS BEING SAID...NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES...WITH AN INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE FAR NORTH AND OVER 1500 FEET. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO STAY RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY AND ACCEPTED. TEMPS TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BIG DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM MOVING UP THE COAST ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW AND THE GFS TOO FAST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD FINALLY END IN A COUPLE HOURS...AS THE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. MVFR LOWERING TO IFR ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS CIGS DROP...AND THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN FALLS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING...FEEL CONFIDENT MOST TAF SITES WILL EVENTUALLY GO VFR TOMORROW AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WILL MAINTAIN GALES. OBS SUPPORTING WINDS WELL ABOVE MODEL FORECAST...AS MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE LOW IS RIDING ON. THIS HAS CAUSED A LARGE ERROR IN THE WNA WAVE WATCH SEAS...SO WILL FORECAST WELL ABOVE THIS. EXPECT WINDS TO COME DOWN...MORE IN LINE WITH MODELS LATE TONIGHT...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON THE BACK OF THE LOW. LONG TERM...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...WILL NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... CANCELED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SWIFT RIVER. THE RIVER CRESTED JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER DO EXPECT SMALL STREAMS TO RUN HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER IN SPOTS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE RUNNING MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS MODEL FORECAST...THUS EXPECT ITS STORM SURGE GUIDANCE OF NIL IS WAY OUT TO LUNCH. ALSO...AT 700 PM PORTLAND EXPERIENCED A .7 FOOT SURGE NEAR LOW TIDE. WITH WINDS CONTINUING AT 25 TO 35 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...EXPECT AROUND A FOOT STORM SURGE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WOULD PUT PORTLAND AROUND 12.7 FEET. UPDATED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST HIGH TIDE REMAINS THE SAME...DID HIGHLIGHT THE WORST OF THE FLOODING WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF PORTLAND. SEAS WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. LOOKING AHEAD...DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW THERE COULD BE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WHICH COULD PUSH THE ALREADY ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TO FLOODING LEVELS ON SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ023>028. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150. && SYNOPSIS...BERMAN/MARINE NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...MARINE LONG TERM...BERMAN AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL HYDROLOGY...APFFEL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...APFFEL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 354 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ001>010-013-172000- NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD- SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK- INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO- NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL- SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP- STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM- 354 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY NH THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY. FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 915 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AN APPROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEZ023>028-NHZ014-172000- COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO- COASTAL ROCKINGHAM- 354 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AN APPROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM COULD COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO PRODUCE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ150-172000- STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM- 354 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An astronomically high tide combined with an area of weak low pressure to produce coastal flooding in York County. Surf St. in Saco was briefly inundated resulting in 10,000.00 woth of damage.
An astronomically high tide combined with an area of weak low pressure to produce minor coastal flooding in Cumberland County. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Maine in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Maine, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 32894, 32895.