Hail and Damaging Winds in Louisiana, May 14, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
939 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.UPDATE...WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTH
LOUISIANA HAS UPPER JET SUPPORT DISPLACED OVER TEXAS AND A LACK OF
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONLY SOME DRIER AIR OVER MISSISSIPPI
LENDS SUPPORT TO THIS BOUNDARY SO EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE (FRONTOLYSIS) TODAY. MORNING LCH SOUNDING TRENDING DRIER
AND MORE STABLE THAN MODEL FCST SOUNDING. ONLY SPOTTY SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY JUST BEFORE MAX HEATING AND
LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING AS YESTERDAY.

SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAK AND NEAR THE COAST TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM AGAIN TO HIGHER THAN CLIMO VALUES
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR. INLAND, STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN
EXCEEDING SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAS ALL THIS AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE AHEAD AND ALONG FROPA WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEPENDING ON TIMING...IT LOOKS LIKE INLAND SE TX/C LA
WILL RECEIVE A BIT MORE RAINFALL THAN THE I-10 CORRIDOR...MAINLY
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE COAST.
ANY RATE...WENT WITH 50% FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE TSRA WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU
MORNING.

POST FRONTAL WEATHER WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS KNOCKED DOWN TO A RESPECTABLE LOWER/MID 80S THU-FRI...WITH THE
MID/UPPER 50S TREATING EARLY RISERS FRI-SAT.

THE MAIN EMPHASIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE AFFECTING THE SE UNITED
STATES...WHICH WILL COMMENCE RETURN FLOW OVER SE TX BY SAT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER C AND SC LA TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER
PLEASANT OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA RETURNING FOR NEXT MON IN
THE GRIDS...WHICH WILL APPEAR IN THE TEXT FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  70  87  67 /  20  20  30  20
KBPT  88  70  86  68 /  20  20  30  20
KAEX  90  68  87  65 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  90  69  87  66 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

JS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-151100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
330 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A COOL
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.