Tornado and Hail in Kansas, May 14, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...HOW MUCH IT COOLS DOWN FOR TUESDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHING UP A RIDGE BEHIND OUR INCOMING SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST. OTHERWISE...A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS HAD
THE SAME PROBLEM AS YESTERDAY. THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE. OVERALL THE UKMET DID THE BEST FOLLOWED BY THE
ECMWF/GFS. ALTHOUGH AT 18Z...MODELS DID HAVE A 700 MB CENTER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO PER THE PLAN PROFILER NETWORK. GFS AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO WET AT 700 MB WITH THE UKMET CLOSER. AT LOW
LEVELS...THE NAM WAS CATCHING THE FRONT THE BEST OF THE LARGE SCALE
MODELS. THE RUC40 WAS DOING VERY WELL UP TO THE CURRENT TIME AND
WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM.

AM VERY LEARY OF USING ANYTHING FROM GFS SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE
AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND UKMET LOOK TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE. CONSIDERING THE WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS NOW WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM/RUC/UKMET.

TONIGHT...MAJOR WRENCH HAS BEEN THROWN INTO THE FORECAST. RATHER
STRONG NORTHERN SYSTEM NEAR THE UNITED STATES AND CANADIAN BORDER HAS
PUSHED COLD FRONT THROUGH WAY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. NAM WAS THE FASTEST
BUT IT WAS EVEN SLOW. IT HAS THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY
00Z. WOULD THINK THAT MAIN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS HIGH POPS AND
DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE WELLS TO GOODLAND TO
MCK. THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET DOES NOT COME INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. EVEN THOUGH IT DID NOT
CATCH THE 700 MB CIRCULATION MENTIONED ABOVE...IT DOES HAVE A
REASONABLE LOCATION AT 00Z. WHERE IT PUTS ITS LIFT IS IN LINE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS WELL. BELIEVE THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BASED ON
FRONTAL POSITION. MAY GET SOME OTHER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
AND MAY BE MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD. SO TIERED THE
POPS LOWEST NORTHWEST TO HIGHEST SOUTHEAST. KEPT THE 06Z-12Z
FORECAST INTACT. BELIEVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE
TO STEERING FLOW BEING NOT VERY STRONG AND UPPER FLOW BEING PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT. HAVE BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE AND FFG VALUES ARE HIGHER.
AT THIS TIME WILL JUST MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE EVENING
SHIFT KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

TUESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...MAIN LOW
LEVEL FORCING BE SOUTH SO SHOULD JUST SEE CLOUDS WITH THIS.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAINFALL IS...MAY SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG IN
THE MORNING. WILL BRIEF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS ON THIS.
SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY.
WILL GO NEAR GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A COOL NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. RETURN FLOW OF COOL AIR
AND NEARBY SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL OF THE COUNTRY...
AND PUSH ANOTHER COOL SURGE INTO THE AREA. SO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF SURFACE
RIDGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AGREE THAT THE ECMWF IS THE BEST WAY TO GO
DURING THIS TIME. IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. HPC GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...AND BASED ON THE
TROUGHS ON EITHER END OF THE COUNTRY...THAT LOOKS TO BETTER AS THE
ECMWF MAY EVEN BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOO MUCH. HAVING SAID
THAT...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT SURE ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
AS WELL. ALSO FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AND WONDER HOW FAR EAST ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE. SEE ENOUGH RIGHT NOW THAT I
WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE IN COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP.
WILL HAVE THE RIDGING ALOFT BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST TWO DAYS AND HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
VERY FAR FROM IT VERY MUCH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW
SUN MORNING WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION TO THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA SUN NIGHT AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH MON. WHILE THE UPPER
DYNAMICS APPEAR RATHER WEAK...INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA MON
DUE TO INCREASING SFC INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND
20 DEG C.

THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FIRST AT
KGLD...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMCK...BY LATE AFTERNOON. UNDERNEATH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT.
ONCE THE CONVECTION PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.  WITH NEW
PRECIPITATION...LOW STRATUS AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
12Z TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...KGLD AND KMCK WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

BULLER/CLK/SFJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1039 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007 /1139 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION.
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND SHARON SPRINGS KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DDT/SFJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

KSZ004-142245-
NORTON-
512 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 508 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR NEW ALMELO...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 111 AND 126.

AEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

KSZ004-142330-
NORTON-
532 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 528 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEAR NEW ALMELO...OR
20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

AEP