A cluster of strong thunderstorms produced gusty winds near Presque Isle Light.
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The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A cluster of strong thunderstorms produced gusty winds near Presque Isle Light.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 9:36 PM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1036 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007 .UPDATE...BRIEF BURST OF SVR JUST OFF CVX/PETOSKEY COAST WANED FAIRLY QUICKLY. APPEARS THAT THE CAP WAS ONLY ABLE TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ERODED DURING ABSOLUTE PEAK HEATING. NOW THAT WE HAVE RADIATED/COOLED A BIT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE STRUGGLING TO TRIGGER SVR CONVECTION. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STILL...BUT PER COORD WITH SPC...IF NOTHING INTENSE FIRES BY 1045 PM THE WATCH WILL BE CANNED. PREV UPDATE FOLLOWS... FRONTAL-ASSOCIATED BAND OF TSTORMS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN UPPER MI/STRAITS AREA...WSW TO SE MN. ONE POWERFUL SUPERCELL CHARGED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MI...BEFORE WEAKENING IN A SPLIT JUST BEFORE REACHING BEAVER ISLAND. WILL KEEP AN EYE OPEN FOR AN OPPORTUNITY TO CLEAR EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE WATCH...BUT STILL SOME STRONGISH STORMS UP THAT WAY...AND WILL BE A BIT BEFORE THE SVR THREAT CLEARS THE DRUMMOND ISL AREA. 00Z APX SOUNDING HAD 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WITH 100J/KG OF CIN. EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING...INSTABILITY IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO CHARGE PAST THE CAP (ASSISTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES)...AND IGNITE STRONG TO SVR STORMS. SVR THREAT DIMINISHES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...AS THE CAP IS STRONGER TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES WE WILL BE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE OLD LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM NORTH OF PLN TO NORTH OF APN. IN ADDITION...APX RADAR BEFORE SUNSET INDICATED A BOUNDARY NORTH TO EAST OF GAYLORD. SHEAR OFF OF 00Z SOUNDING WAS NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IS INCREASING WITH TIME PER GRB 00Z SOUNDING. NOT INCONCEIVABLE TO HAVE A SPIN-UP TOR ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. MAIN THREAT REMAINS HAIL AND WIND. ZOLTOWSKI && .AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TONIGHT. SEE SVR TSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 07Z/3 AM. BEST CHANCE OF SVR WX AT TAF SITES IS AT PLN. SHOWERS WILL LAST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MAIN PART OF SQUALL LINE GOES THRU. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND VFR...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. JZ && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 PM SUN JUL 8... SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING ONLY A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DOTTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS NORTH OF M-72. THESE SHOWERS PERSISTED IN A ZONE OF STEEP 7.5C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND ALONG AND LEFT OF H8 40KT LLJ AXIS...AND MAY BE HELPED BY VERY WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. BEHIND/SOUTH OF THIS LLJ...VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO FILL INTO THE SW CWA (AROUND GTV BAY) WITH +25-26C AIR AT H8. THIS HOT AIR IS CAPPING OFF ANY TYPE OF CONVECTION...AND SKIES WERE CLEARING...WHILE TEMPS WERE SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...AND HEAT INDICES WERE IN THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NE WI WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NW WISCONSIN AND SC MN. TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WERE RESULTING IN TREMENDOUS SBCAPES TO 5000 J/KG AND MLCAPES TO 3500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED NORTH OF MSP AHEAD OF BETTER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF SD. FORECAST CONCERNS...THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TONIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF M-32 WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE HOT AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER BY 00Z AND WILL TRY AND PUT A LID ON ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF M-68. SPECIAL 18Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS AT LEAST 170 J/KG OF CINH...AND EVEN MORE WITH A 100MB MIXED LAYER CAPE. THEREFORE...AS EXPECTED...THINGS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET IN MOST OF NRN LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...ALONG MORE OF A STATIONARY FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE A BIT COOLER (AND WITHIN STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE IMPULSE FROM SD/MN CONTINUES TO EJECT OUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND WORKS WITH LIFT FROM THE SFC FRONT TO ERODE THE CAP HOLDING CONVECTION BACK. RATHER EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. 40-50KT OF 0-6KM BULK/EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE THESE STORMS INTO CLUSTERS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CAPE THROUGH THE -10C TO -30C. SPC SIGNIFICANT HAIL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THAT COULD ROLL IN DURING THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHTLY LOWER HAIL SIZES IN HWOAPX FOR AN INCH AND A HALF. THE STRONGEST OF STORMS WILL FIRE WHILE SUN IS OUT AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PUTS THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ALSO WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT WITH ONLY THE FRONT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...AS FRONT SETTLES DOWN ACROSS THE SRN MOST CWA...COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE LESS THAN THIS EVENING. PRESENCE OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE/COOLER AIR MASS FROM COOL MORNING MCS OUTFLOW ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION COULD BE A FOCUS FOR INCREASED HORIZONTAL VORTICITY/HELICITY FOR OUTSIDE SHOT AT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WILL ADD THIS TO HWOAPX. AS FRONT SWINGS DOWN ACROSS THE CWA...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SE. SMD MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A DIFFICULT FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF RELATIVELY FLAT ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY TRANSITIONING TOWARD AMPLIFIED TROUGHING AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE QUICKLY AMPLIFIES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BOTH TOMORROW AND ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS HOW WARM/UNWARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET EACH DAY. FOR TOMORROW...APPEARS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA AS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PARALLELS THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT CAN GET GOING TO PROPAGATE IT FURTHER SOUTHWARD. GOING WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INTO TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES...WHERE MLCAPES PROGGED AROUND 1000 J/KG PER LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. IT APPEARS A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ADVANCES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT SAID...AM STILL LEARY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTH AS JUST NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL END UP. ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CERTAINLY RUN THE RISK OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION AGAIN REVS UP IN ADVANCE OF WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT MAY NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE THE DETAILS ABOUT TONIGHTS/TOMORROWS CONVECTION CAN BE IRONED OUT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE. STATIONARY BOUNDARY (WHEREVER IT IS AT THIS POINT) WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OWING TO INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS (2-3MB/3HR) ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WAVE. PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OVERTAKE AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWA BY AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED CAPPING PER ONSET OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MLCAPES PROGGED 1500-2000 J/KG BUT DEEP SHEAR LACKING AT ONLY ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE PULSE IN NATURE. THAT MAY ALL CHANGE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS CORE OF STRONGEST HEIGHTS FALLS ADVANCING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. FORCED ASCENT PER INCOMING HEIGHT FALLS COUPLED WITH INTRODUCTION OF JET DYNAMICS AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SLIDES BY TO THE WEST AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A COOLDOWN IN ORDER FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW AS UPSTREAM AIRMASS (TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S) SLIDES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH FAR SOUTHERN CWA IFFY PENDING PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS COULD EASILY SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN. TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER QUITE WARM DAY WITH ONGOING WARM ADVECTION...THOUGH PLACEMENT OF LIFTING WARM FRONT/CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THE DETERMINATION OF UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S VERSUS POTENTIALLY UPPER 80S PER H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C. LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. STRONG OMEGA BLOCK RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN/DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS REMAIN IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING SUCH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN...WITH DEEP TROUGHING SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL OBVIOUSLY FAVOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 5C AND 8C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH OVERALL TROUGHING/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PRESENT...AND SEVERAL REINFORCING WAVES LIKELY TO DROP OVER THE STEEP RIDGE INTO THE AREA TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH...FORESEE SOME MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE PER COOL POOL OVERHEAD AND SOME EXPECTED AFTERNOON HEATING. TIMING THESE WAVES AND THEIR SURFACE REFLECTIONS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS JUNCTURE...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD SMALL CHANCE POP GOING FOR MAINLY THU/FRI AFTERNOONS BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO AMPLIFY. HOWEVER...MODELS APPEAR TOO FAST TO BREAK DOWN THE PATTERN GIVEN SUCH A PRONOUNCED BLOCKING RIDGE...SO WOULD THINK THE COOL WEATHER WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LAWRENCE && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 403 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007 LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008- 015>036-041-042-091000- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON- MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY- ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE- CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE- GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD- MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- 403 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTH OF M-32...WHERE AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M 55 IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SMD
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 559 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007 MIZ008-015-090000- CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE 559 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING... AT 555 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF MUNISING TO 25 MILES WEST OF ESCANABA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER 7 PM. PEOPLE IN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTY SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. JZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
945 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0932 PM TSTM WND GST 3 WNW EAST JORDAN 45.17N 85.19W
07/08/2007 M43 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI TRAINED SPOTTER
DAVIS WEATHER EQUIPMENT.
0942 PM TSTM WND GST 12 N ST. IGNACE 46.04N 84.73W
07/08/2007 M46 MPH MACKINAC MI AIRPLANE PILOT
&&
SWRPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
946 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0932 PM TSTM WND GST 3 WNW EAST JORDAN 45.17N 85.19W
07/08/2007 M43.00 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI TRAINED SPOTTER
DAVIS WEATHER EQUIPMENT.
0942 PM TSTM WND GST 12 N ST. IGNACE 46.04N 84.73W
07/08/2007 M46.00 MPH MACKINAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
SWRPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1004 PM HAIL CHARLEVOIX 45.32N 85.26W
07/08/2007 E0.50 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI TRAINED SPOTTER
ALSO WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO 40 MPH.
&&
SWRThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 92 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:46 UTC.
2 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 50974, 50975.