Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, July 8, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.UPDATE...
COOL FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH ABOUT AS FORECAST BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
MID LEVEL DEBRIS FROM DAKOTAS WAVE WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL.TEMPS OVER PARTS OF WI MAY BE
A LITTLE HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAP STILL IN PLACE BUT THERE
AREA INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ABOUT THE TIME THAT FRONT ARRIVES. MOIST CONV WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA AND CAPE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE STORM. HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGGING A BIT TO THE NORTH. HAVE
HELD OFF ON POPS THIS AREA UNTIL AROUND 3 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../PREV DISCUSSION FROM 250 AM  /
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BORDER. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT CAPPING INVERSION /700 MB TEMPS AROUND
+13C/ TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
UNTIL LATER TODAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVES FROM EASTERN
MONTANA/DAKOTAS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN...AND AIDS IN THE
EROSION OF THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE
DECREASED...WITH NAM/SREF/GFS ALL INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE POST-FRONTAL IN NATURE. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALIGNED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCENARIO UNFOLDS. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE STEAMY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FROM EAU CLAIRE TO FAIRMONT...WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
MAY YIELD PEAK INDICES NEARING 100 DEGREES.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IOWA BORDER
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY...WITH A REPRIEVE FROM
THE HOT CONDITIONS ARRIVING ON MONDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS PROGS STRONG DIVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
TO BE CENTERED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE /
AREA OF MVFR CIG BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS
VCNTY KRWF...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVER REST OF
AREA. SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT BEST CHANCE
OF THIS SOUTH OF TAF SITES. POSSIBLE THUNDER VCNTY OF KMSP AND
KRWF WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY 21Z-00Z. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
09Z-12Z BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PREVENT THIS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
915 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
915 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEW ULM...TO TWIN CITIES METRO...TO RICE LAKE
WISCONSIN LINE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...HEAT INDICES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG A FAIRMONT TO EAU
CLAIRE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.