The first of two rounds of severe weather occurred during the early morning hours. This first round, which was much less significant than the later outbreak, was associated with strong low level southwest winds ahead of a deep low pressure center along the Missouri/Nebraska border.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
The first of two rounds of severe weather occurred during the early morning hours. This first round, which was much less significant than the later outbreak, was associated with strong low level southwest winds ahead of a deep low pressure center along the Missouri/Nebraska border. The isolated severe weather during the early morning hours was damaging wind associated with short lines of storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 17, 3:15 PM CST, 10 hours 59 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 315 PM CST WED OCT 17 2007 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN EMPHASIZING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. MAJOR MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING OUT OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY 09Z. IN RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE A LLJ OF 75KTS AT 850MB IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WITH THE LIFT EXPECTED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES OUT OF ANY CONVECTIVE MODE. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY OUTRUN THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT IF THEY ARE SLOWER TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY CATCH UP TO THEM AND THERE MAY BE SOME BETTER THREAT OF MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE WORST SEVERE WEATHER WOULD ACCOMPANY THESE ISOLATED STORMS...BUT AGAIN THAT IS UNLIKELY. FOR THURSDAY...THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY AT SUNRISE...AND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z. THE WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GOOD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GOOD THERE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE/TROUGH IN EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BRING A MAJOR DRY SLOT WITH MID-LEVEL WARMING INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH EFFECTIVELY PUTS A LID ON ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME SHALLOW SHOWERY CONVECTION THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH SEEMS BELIEVABLE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE POP IN THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z NAM EVOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SEVERE MENTION THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT...AND KEEP GOOD CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE EAST WITH SLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WILL GO DRY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND RAMP UP TO JUST 30S IN THE EAST. AS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THINK THAT HPC QPF WAS OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT...SO KNOCKED IT DOWN ABOUT 30 PERCENT. 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY AM CONVECTION. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. GENERALLY FAVORED THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DRY AND PLEASANT SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND INCONSISTENT WITH AN EARLY WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM. GFS BRINGS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THE ECMWF IS VERY SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVING OVER THE QUAD STATE REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE GFS HAS US DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF LINGERS PRECIP OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW NEVER MOVING. DGEX IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BUT SLOWLY MOVING IT NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...BASED ON LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...WENT COOLER THAN THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE NE...AFFECTING KCGI BY 20Z...KPAH BY 21Z...AND KEVV AROUND 23Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSTMS. TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 12Z. CIGS RANGING FROM BKN015 TO BKN030 WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH BKN010-015 POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. S TO SE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY FROM THE S TO SW WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1224 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-190530- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1224 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE OVERNIGHT...AND AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY AROUND SUNRISE. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY THURSDAY. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IF THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SERIOUS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE REQUESTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE...AND AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0126 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG DONIPHAN 36.62N 90.82W
10/18/2007 RIPLEY MO EMERGENCY MNGR
WIDESPREAD MINOR DAMAGE WITH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TREES
AND POWER LINES DOWN. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOME. EM TEAM
CONDUCTING SURVEY AT THIS TIME. RADAR INDICATED STORM
MOVED THROUGH COMMUNITY AT 126 AM.
&&
SMITTYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 N POPLAR BLUFF 36.81N 90.41W
10/18/2007 BUTLER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
DOWNED POWER LINES NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF. ESTIMATED WINDS
IN POPLAR BLUFF 65-70 MPH.
&&
SMITTYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0222 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE MARBLE HILL 37.26N 89.93W
10/18/2007 BOLLINGER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
DOWNED POWER LINES IN THE LEOPOLD AREA. NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES REPORTED.
&&
SMITTYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0235 AM TSTM WND DMG DEXTER 36.79N 89.96W
10/18/2007 STODDARD MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROOF DAMAGE TO BUILDING ALONG EAST STODDARD STREET. NO
INJURIES REPORTED AT THIS TIME. POWER LINES DOWN JUST
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
&&
SMITTY<!doctype html>
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</html>The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:14 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was down on a mobile home. Two other trees were down in the same area, blocking roads. Two adults were briefly trapped in the mobile home. Both adults received minor injuries but refused medical treatment.
Trees were down in the Slater Road area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 58815, 58816.