Flash Flooding in Kentucky, May 11, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
3 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY):...
BKN TO OVC MID DECK ACROSS FA THIS AFTN AND EVENING...VERY LIGHT
LOW LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION THERE IS ONLY A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN ACROSS OUR FA. BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LATEST HPC QPF TRENDS INDICATE
SAME. LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL THE PCPN WILL BE OVER BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SOMEWHAT...WE WILL THEN SEE
SOME NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION. LIKEWISE THE
COOLER AIR WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN TODAYS BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. --21

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DRIER SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY
MORNING.  DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S DOWN ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH THIS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS
REGION WITH MID 70S IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S IN THE
BOWLING GREEN AREA AND ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEING FLATTEN AS SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG VORTS PLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING DECENT MID-LEVEL WAVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET WITH THAT COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE.  SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 80 BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
ROLLS INTO THE REGION.  AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE HIGHS THU AND FRI WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  12Z MEX DATA SHOWING HIGHS
COOLER THAN CLIMO...USUALLY A SIGN THAT TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
BACK EVEN MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

-MJ

.AVIATION DISCUSSION(18Z TAFS)
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN END ROUGHLY NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER DARK. VERY LIGHT FLOW...WITH A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN IN AND NRN KY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE FCST PD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-121945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007 /255 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WITH ATMOSPHERIC WINDS BEING QUITE LIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE LATEST FORECASTS SHOW THAT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
504 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

KYZ024-026>028-112230-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...BEAVER DAM...
LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX
504 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007 /404 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007/

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL MOVE ACROSS
BRECKINRIDGE AND OHIO COUNTIES AND MINTO GRAYSON COUNTY. ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM IN HARDIN COUNTY...SOUTH OF RADCLIFF...WILL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 6 PM EDT. HAIL
THE SIZE OF NICKELS HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS JUST
WEST OF OHIO COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH COULD OCCUR IN AN HOURS TIME. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IF STORMS APPROACH...SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS.

SCHOLZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
523 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

KYZ024-026-027-112145-
BRECKINRIDGE-GRAYSON-OHIO-
423 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST GRAYSON
COUNTIES...

AT 414 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OHIO COUNTY...29 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF OWENSBORO...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THESE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN GRAYSON
COUNTY.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORM.

THE STORMS ARE DUMPING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND SMALL CREEKS AND DRAINAGE
DITCHES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS COVERED BY WATER.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHOLZ