Hail in Kentucky, March 28, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
856 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

SOMEWHAT BUSY DAY FOR THE SHORT TERM DESK TODAY. SHORT WAVE SYSTEM
WAS THE CATALYST FOR STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SEVERAL WERE
BORDERLINE SEVERE. HAD ONE REPORT OF PENNY SIZE HAIL IN ESTILL
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...REPORTS CONSISTED OF MAINLY PEA TO MARBLE SIZE
HAIL. ALSO ISSUED A COUPLE OF FLOOD ADVISORIES AS RAINFALL WAS QUITE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

THE MAIN VORT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THE BULK OF
RAINFALL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
PRETTY WELL...LEAVING A CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT PRESENT
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO...SO LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE ZONES FOR
GOOD MEASURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS TOMORROW
BEFORE MOVING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DRIVING ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS QUIET
AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD.

TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES MADE.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE
PROCESS...UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF OVER THE SW CONUS WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE WESTERLIES BY SATURDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE GFS HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT FOLLOWED PREVIOUS SHIFTS LEAD WITH SLOWER
SYSTEM EVOLUTION...ADVERTISING HIGHEST POPS BEGINNING AROUND DAWN ON
SUNDAY BEFORE CARRYING THEM OVER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT GFS
MEX GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY AS MODELS TYPICALLY HANDLE EXITING SW CUTOFF
LOWS POORLY...OFTEN KICKING THEM OUT TOO QUICKLY. MODELS ADVERTISE
ANOTHER..MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...UPDATED

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LEFT BEHIND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWER MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE
MOISTURE...SHOWERS ARE ONLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONG LIFT. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE DISSIPATED...WITH EVEN SOME HOLES IN THE OVERCAST. WHAT IS LEFT
OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STREWN FROM NW TO SE OVER
EASTERN KY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING IT DRIFTING SW TONIGHT. WITH
THE LOWEST LEVELS BEING SO MOIST AT SUNSET...IT SETS US UP FOR A
GOOD POTENTIAL OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR AROUND KSME AND KLOZ SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAFS MOST OF THE TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
507 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-291100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
507 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GEOGERIAN/RAY