Flood in Kentucky, March 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
545 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE ROLLING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT
THROUGH LAST NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AROUND THE LOW...KEPT WINDS GUSTY TODAY. THESE WINDS WERE ENHANCED
BY MIXING DEEP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE THANKS IN PART TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. NOW...THE CU HAS
OVERSPREAD EAST KENTUCKY WITH VIRGA...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...FALLING FROM THESE CLOUDS. IF THE
MOISTURE WAS NOT SO LIMITED...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE SOUNDING AND THERMAL PROFILE. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE AIR THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH 60 HOURS AS THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SLOWLY OPENS UP AND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO FAR EAST CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT MAKES THIS
TRANSITION...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING BUILDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND EASTERN TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
THE NAM IS A TAD MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS EASTERN TROUGH THAN THE
GFS. THE WEAKER GFS IS PREFERRED BASED ON BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE
REGIONAL MODELS AND THE 00Z ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL STILL REVOLVE AROUND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC
LOW. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH A MOISTURE
STARVED...BUT DYNAMIC...SHORTWAVE PASSING BY ALOFT. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND SUNSET BEFORE
DIMINISHING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE MAIN
LOW...WELL TO THE NORTH...WILL THEN PIVOT INTO KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN. THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW UNTIL IT GETS TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHEN THE TIME OF DAY AND AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING WILL DETERMINE IF ANY
LIGHT SNOW MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. REGARDLESS...NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS. THE MOISTURE THEN SLOWLY SWEEPS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXITING FAR EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING. THROUGHOUT ALL THIS...THE WINDS WILL STAY UP IN RESPONSE
TO THE GRADIENT PRESSURE AND NOT SLACKEN MUCH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE SFC LOW HAS FINALLY PULLED FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE PREFERRED MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A
BIT HIGHER THAN THE MAV/S VALUES FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SIMILAR TO THE FWC.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

IN THE LONG RANGE...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF RIDGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DURING THIS TIME...AT THE SFC AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL
DROP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND STALL OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL BE TOO DRY TO BRING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...ALOFT A MINOR TROUGH WILL ROLL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITHOUT MUCH INCLINATION TO AMPLIFY. AS A
RESULT...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER A COOL START TO THE UPCOMING WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

GUSTY SUSTAINED SW WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING DOMINATE. ADDITIONALLY...
A SHORT WAVE WILL INITIATE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN A WINDOW OF
ROUGHLY 22-03Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAF...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTION ISOLATED. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...WITH A BROKEN
DECK OF CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT AROUND 5K FEET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
442 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
442 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE SUBSIDING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GEOGERIAN