Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, June 18, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR REVEAL HEAT OF DAY CONVECTION FIRING IN
SOUPING ATMOS...AIDED SLIGHTLY BY WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER
FLOW...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NAM SEEMS TO BE
PICKING UP ON THIS DECENTLY WELL. IT HAS SIMILAR TO GFS APPROACH
WITH FRONT TONIGHT...BRINGING IT TO NR OH RIVER BY 12Z TUE. BEST
UPPER ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH AND EAST SO AS TO PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD SVR RISK BUT STILL RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
POPS TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. ALL MOS PAINTING HIGH LIKELY-LOW
CATEGORICAL EVENT AND WEVE FOLLOWED SUIT OR VERY NEAR.

FRONT GOES AHEAD AND DRAGS THRU REMAINDER OF FA TOMORROW...SO
CONTINUED HIGH POPS HIGHEST SE TOMORROW AM...TAPERING OFF TO NW
BEHID FRONT. BY 00Z WED...ALL MODELS SHOW FRONT IS THRU AND DRIER
AIR HAS SUNKEN INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...SO WEVE NIPPED OFF EARLY
EVENING MENTION THAT WAS INHERITED. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
NICE MID TO LATE WEEK UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOLER/DRIER HIGH.

LATE IN THE WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND...WE START TO SOUP UP AGAIN AS
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AND AIR MASS IS MODIFIED BY EWARD SHIFTING
HIGH. NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST TAGS EXTENDED OUTLOOKED SLGT RISK...SO
WEVE ADDED SMALL CHC POPS SATURDAY FOR ITS PASSAGE...THIS HAVING
BEEN SIGNALLED NOW AT LEAST A COUPLE OR THREE RUNS. AFTER THAT
MORE AND BETTER HOT/HUMID WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENING OVER CNTL U.S.

MAYBE A NEAR TERM LEAN TOWARD NAM MET MOS BUT BLENDED REASONABLY
W/GFS MAV MOS...ESP OVER MID TO LONGER RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WENT WITH VCTS FOR TAF SITES FOR
NOW BUT WILL AMEND IF COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.  THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. CU/SC AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TODAY
INTO TOMORROW...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
425 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-190930-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
425 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT MOST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MY