Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, June 18, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS FAIRLY HIGH...SO
THINK THAT LARGE HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL FOR
THE MOST PART...SO TORNADO THREAT IS LOW AS WELL. THAT LEAVES STRONG
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE A HALF TO ONE INCH
WITH LOCAL 2 INCH AMOUNTS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH.
1 AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES SO AT
MOST JUST EXPECT URBAN FLOODING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AFTER FRONT
DEPARTS OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE
SMALL PCPN CHCS AND TEMPERATURES.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FCST AS WE GET
INTO A SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN. OF CONCERN WILL BE THE EVENTUAL POSITIONS OF
WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...AND PSBL MODEL PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

PCPN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY VARIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP NEAR
OR ACROSS THE FA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WI
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS DURING
THAT PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RIPPLES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR WARM FRONT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.
DEPENDING ON THE POSN OF THIS FRONT...WE COULD HAVE A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
OVER MUCH OF C/NE WI. ATTM...JUST DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A CHC OF STORMS
OVER N WI DURING THIS PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT THAT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MADE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.

HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESP
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST A VERY WARM
AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&
.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RDM
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-192045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
345 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...
WHICH MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THESE PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-192045-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
345 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. THE PRIMARY RISK IS OF STRONG WINDS. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 500 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF STURGEON BAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RDM/KIECKBUSCH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
445 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-045-190000-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-
WAUSHARA-
INCLUDING EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...
WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT AND WAUTOMA
445 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 445 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED
REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE IN PARTS OF VILAS AND ONEIDA COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS REPORTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PERSONS IN NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SHOULD
EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN INCH. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IF STORMS APPROACH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

KIECKBUSCH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY