A strengthening low pressure system tracked from the southern Plains northeast across the St. Louis, MO area during the night.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A strengthening low pressure system tracked from the southern Plains northeast across the St. Louis, MO area during the night. South winds in advance of the low were strong and gusty. For a few hours, gusts reached 45 to around 50 mph. At the Paducah airport, a wind gust to 52 mph was measured by the automated observing system. Trees and limbs were blown down in McCracken County, including one that fell on a house. In Mayfield in Graves County, small branches were broken by wind gusts estimated to 45 mph. In northern Marshall County in Calvert City, an off-duty meteorologist measured a gust to 53 mph. Finally, the Owensboro airport automated observing system measured a 46 mph gust.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 22, 1:45 PM CST, 9 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 145 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007 .SHORT TERM... INTENSE 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE KSTL AREA BY 06Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. GRADIENT WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING. PLAN TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...MAINLY FOR GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PRECIPITATION OF A CONVECTIVE CHARACTER. INDIRECT EFFECT OF THESE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE RUC MODEL TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KT ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY BY MID EVENING. INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS ARE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS IS IMPEDING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION. RUC MODEL PINCHES OFF THE NARROW RIBBON OF 55 PLUS DEW POINTS BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOW TOPPED LINEAR STRUCTURES...PER 16Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z...A COUPLE HOURS SOONER IN THE WEST AND LATER IN THE EAST. THIS FRONT WILL END THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME LINGERING POST FRONTAL STRATIFORM PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN PARTS OF SRN ILLINOIS AND SE MISSOURI. A SOLID LOW OVERCAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 925/850 MB RH WILL DECREASE SHARPLY AROUND 12Z IN SE MISSOURI...AND BY 18Z IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PENNYRILE OF WEST KENTUCKY. A GUSTY WEST WIND AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S...IN SHARP CONTRAST TO TODAY. MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE A SHORT LIVED QUIET PERIOD BEFORE AN ACTIVE PATTERN PATTERN RESUMES...AS DISCUSSED IN LONG TERM SEGMENT OF THIS DISCUSSION. LOW POPS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE CONVERTED TO MENTION OF FLURRIES. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR APART AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN PLENTY OF DRY AIR...INHIBITING ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE EVENT. && .LONG TERM... ERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM IN QUICKLY DURING THE DAY WED AND WED NIGHT. WITH SFC LOW EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM. STILL WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NW OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. 12Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. DECIDED TO DISCARD THIS QUICKER SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE BETTER MEDIUM RANGE PERFORMER AS OF LATE. 12Z GFS ALSO HAS COMPLETELY DIGRESSED FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION YESTERDAY OF BRINGING THE NEXT H50 SHORT WAVE INTO THE PLAINS FRI... OPTING TO KEEP THE UPPER SYSTEM OUT WEST. AGAIN...PREFER TO STICK WITH A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HERE...WHICH CORRESPONDS CLOSELY TO WHAT WE HAVE ONGOING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. IN FACT...IF THE 00Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSE TO REALITY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A VERY POTENT SYSTEM COMING IN FRIDAY WITH EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER. OF COURSE...MANY THINGS COULD CHANGE BY THAT TIME. WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE WED THROUGH SAT TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR AVIATION. SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEAR 50 KT AT 3K FEET. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 40 KT. HOWEVER...SURFACE GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIP THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STABLE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED...WITH VSBYS BECOMING EXCELLENT. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR WEST KY. MO...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR SE MISSOURI. IL...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR S IL. IN...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR SW IN. && SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...GM AVIATION...MY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1049 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-231100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1049 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY. REFER TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN LATE TONIGHT...A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE GREEN AND OHIO RIVERS. REFER TO FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR SLEET IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 65263, 65264, 65265, 65266.