Heavy rainfall caused minor flooding in northeast Kentucky during the morning.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Heavy rainfall caused minor flooding in northeast Kentucky during the morning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 13, 6:53 AM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 653 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS PREDICTED BY CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING TO CHANCE ALL ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WELL UNDER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. RADAR HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING TO THE NORTH AND WEST DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING. NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS WITH LITTLE WARMING EXPECTED UNDER THICK CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW BEING CARRIED AWAY BY A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS PER GFS. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY HINT AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WHICH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT SETS THE STAGE FOR THE WEEKEND WINTER WEATHER EVENT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS THIS FEATURE INTO THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO SE OHIO SAT EVENING BEFORE TRANSLATING THE ENERGY TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF SOLN IS SLOWER AND WRAPS MORE WARM AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND CONSIDERABLY MORE QPF...BUT HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS. HAVE FOLLOWED A SOLN CLOSE TO GFS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT SAT/SAT NIGHT. HAVE USED TOP DOWN TOOL TO GENERATE WEATHER AND HAVE ALL SNOW SAT MORNING...MIXING WITH SLEET AND RAIN DURING THE AFTN ACRS THE SRN HALF OF FA AND THEN CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN FAR SE. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW SAT EVENING. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...HAVE GENERALLY FCST A 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW IN THE GRIDS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWER TOTALS IN THE SE...WHERE RAIN MIXES IN AND HAVE GENERALLY FCST 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALSO...HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE N AND NE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 6 INCHES. MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE WL CONTINUE OUTLOOK IN HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS TO PIVOT EAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING SUNDAY. HAVE SYSTEM SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO OHIO VALLEY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. S/W ENERGY DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO HAVE KEPT A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR N. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST TUE AND WED WITH FLOW BACKING AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING. TEMP WISE...HAVE BUMPED UP PREV FCST TEMPS A LTL BUT STILL AT OR A LTL BELOW MEX GUID. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEP MOISTURE PATTERN SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST OF FA THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT ACRS THE AREA. IFR AND LIFR CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN. AS DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASES VSBY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MID AFTN AND CIGS TO VFR LATE TNGT. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND SATURATED SOIL FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP TO TONIGHT. TIMING OF THE FOG AND VSBY RESTRICTION ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN BUT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AFT 06Z. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW SINCE MAIN CONCENTRATION HAS BEEN ON THE ENDING OF THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 533 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 INZ050-058-059-066-073-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-060-141045- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE- DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-PREBLE- 533 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXITING TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SYSTEM TRACKS...A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO CHANGE OR FOR THE TIMING TO BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. EITHER OF THESE VARIABLES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THE TYPE OF WEATHER THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND...LISTEN TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INZ074-075-080-KYZ089>095-OHZ045-046-052>056-061>063-070>072-077-078- 141045- DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL- OWEN-GRANT-UNION OH-DELAWARE-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH- LICKING-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON- CLERMONT- 533 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXITING TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SYSTEM TRACKS...THIS MIX MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A PERIOD. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO CHANGE OR FOR THE TIMING TO BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. EITHER OF THESE VARIABLES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THE TYPE OF WEATHER THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND...LISTEN TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO CHANGE OR FOR THE TIMING TO BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. EITHER OF THESE VARIABLES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THE TYPE OF WEATHER THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND...LISTEN TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KYZ096>100-OHZ064-065-073-074-079>082-088-141045- PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS- HOCKING-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 533 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXITING TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT THE START AND END OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN LIKELY IN BETWEEN. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SYSTEM TRACKS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ICE OR SNOW MAY DEVELOP. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO CHANGE OR FOR THE TIMING TO BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. EITHER OF THESE VARIABLES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THE TYPE OF WEATHER THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND...LISTEN TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 816 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 OHZ026-034-035-043>045-131415- SHELBY OH-UNION OH-LOGAN OH-AUGLAIZE OH-MERCER OH-HARDIN OH- 816 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 THERE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A QUICK SHOT WITH A BRIEF DURATION. PERSONS DRIVING THIS MORNING SHOULD BE AWARE OF CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE TO BE ON THE ROAD.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
State Route 8 and Rock Run Road were flooded and impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 64725.