Flash Flood and Flooding in Kansas, May 7, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HEMISPHERIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERNS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES. POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MODELS FORECAST VERY LITTLE CHANGE
TO THIS SETUP THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS LONG WAVE SETUP...MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES...CONTINUING TO BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. AN ALREADY POSITIVE TILT TO THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL
INCREASE AS A BIG CHUNK OF ENERGY PULLS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MAY THEN SLOWLY NUDGE NORTHEAST LATER
THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BECOME A BIT MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEK...SO SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES WILL BE THE KEY TO GETTING CONVECTION GOING.
PINPOINTING THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS MORNING. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY MORNING REMAINS ORIENTATED FROM NEAR PARSONS
TO NEVADA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY GET REINFORCED BY CONVECTION CURRENTLY
GOING OVER EASTERN KANSAS. SECOND BOUNDARY IS MORE OF A MOISTURE
GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.
THIS BOUNDARY HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT ACTIVE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. HAVE PAINTED MAINLY CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE LOW LEVEL JET
CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. PLACED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. AGAIN EXPECT MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY WITH A FAIRLY WEAK CAP. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAY PUSH
30 KNOTS OR SO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. WILL
THEREFORE SEE A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT TO THAT OF SUNDAY...HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SAW NO REASON TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...BUT DID TRIM THINGS
BACK A FEW DEGREES OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS 850/925MB TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED EVER SO SLIGHTLY. AGAIN EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH AFTER DARK. DO NOT EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT...SO SAW NO REASON TO GO ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY TWO REAL
MECHANISMS FOR GETTING CONVECTION GOING. FIRST WOULD BE DAYTIME
HEATING AND ANY KIND OF FORCING THAT CAN BE GENERATED BY A SMALLER
SCALE BOUNDARY. NO WAY TO PREDICT THIS OUT THAT FAR. SECOND
MECHANISM WOULD BE ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD FIRE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND MOVE INTO THE OZARKS. NOT BANKING TOO HARD ON EITHER OF
THESE...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE. KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARM AS LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE AIRMASS. AS A
MATTER IN FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE EASTERN ZONES MAY WARM
UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE MOSTLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTENSIFYING AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND A STRONG LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

LATE THIS WEEK...WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ENERGY. IT MAY EVENTUALLY PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY
TO BRING A SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT AT LEAST TOWARDS OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
NOW...UNTIL DETAILS BECOME CLEARER ON IF AND WHEN THE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE. KEPT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY
TO COVER THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST ENERGY AND POSSIBLE FRONT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FUNNEL AFFECT NEAR THE SGF AERODROME. AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE...CONVECTION WILL EDGE INTO FAR WESTERN MO...BUT NOT MUCH
FARTHER. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THE JLN AERODROME
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT SGF. MVFR CIG/VIS MORE
PROBABLE AT JLN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA THE MOVE INTO THIS
AREA...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1025 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1025 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING...
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.
  TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
  AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO STOCKTON TO WARSAW THROUGH
  TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND
  INTERACT WITH BOUNDARIES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  WESTERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
  REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
  RISKS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF WALNUTS AND
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY TRAIN...OR MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS
  REPEATED...IN AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS BORDER. THIS WILL
  LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SPECIFIC DETAILS
 REMAIN IN QUESTION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY
 RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
 OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO OSCEOLA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB/GAGAN