A slow moving upper level system produced low based thunderstorms that moved south during the early afternoon. The environment would be typical of a tropical atmosphere.
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The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
A slow moving upper level system produced low based thunderstorms that moved south during the early afternoon. The environment would be typical of a tropical atmosphere.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 2:45 AM CST, 10 hours 35 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 345 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH RAIN THE DDC CWA WILL RECEIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN MY SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH NOT TOO HIGH QPF AMOUNTS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANAL FROM 08Z SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM NEAR HUT WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT...THERE IS A DEFORMATION ZONE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT FROM N OF SUX, IA SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA NEAR 60F...WITH MOISTURE POOLING NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY. WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK AS THE DAY HEATS UP AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE...THERE COULD BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE FIELD. WILL LOWER POPS AFTER ABOUT 03Z...AS THE UPPER DEFORMATION ZONES SHOULD SLIP SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD SLIDE INTO OUR CWA BEFORE STALLING AS A STATIONARY FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR RW-/TRW- IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND LESSER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT MAY MEANDER AROUND OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO THURSDAY...SO KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS (20) IN THE HAYS AREA. THE QPF WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHAT MAY HAPPEN BEYOND DAY 2. IF ANY AREA...ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA...RECEIVES AN INCH OF MORE OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD. THE FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND ASSESS THIS THREAT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WONT CLIMB TOO MUCH DUE TO STACKED CLOUDS OVERHEAD...AND MINS WILL ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. DAYS 3-7... THE WALLOWING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 140W AND 150W DIGS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT FOR DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FROM ENERGY DISPERSION FROM THE ENHANCED TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND 100E. THE EXPERIMENTAL GSDM PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE HEADING TOWARD A GSDM STAGE 1 PATTERN WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS JUST HOW RAPIDLY THE DEEP CYCLONE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THE SLOWER, DEEPER SOLUTION OF THE CANADIAN APPEARS TO HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LARGELY WAS FOLLOWED FOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CANADIAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE, MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY WALLOWS ITS WAY OVER EASTERN KANSAS. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LIKELY WILL BE REASONABLY FREE OF RAINFALL. STRATUS GRADUALLY WILL ERODE DURING THE DAY BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY PERSISTENT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND THIS LIKELY WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND CONVERGENCE IN A THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BUBBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CAP, AND LOW POPS WERE CARRIED INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED, UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SLOWLY EASTWARD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM AREA. THE CONVECTION LIKELY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT AND REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND VERY RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PROBABLY WILL NOT LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN DEFORMATION ZONES AROUND THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT WILL WALLOW SLOWLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...REACHING NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A CONSEQUENCE OF SURFACE HEATING. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW AND LIFTING OVER THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 76 56 71 54 / 40 40 30 40 GCK 76 53 71 53 / 30 30 20 30 EHA 77 54 73 53 / 20 20 30 40 LBL 77 55 71 54 / 30 30 30 40 HYS 74 56 71 54 / 30 30 10 20 P28 75 57 72 57 / 60 60 40 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && FN12/01/01
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 449 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-021000- TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN- PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA- PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER- 449 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007 /349 AM MDT TUE MAY 1 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A LARNED TO ASHLAND LINE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES EAST. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC 12/01
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:20 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A weak vortex existed for about a minute as it traveled west. The tornado was typical of what one would see in a tropical environment.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kansas, 2007Warnings in Kansas, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 35912.