Heavy Rain in Kansas, July 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

DECENT CLUSTER OF TSRA ON-GOING EARLY THIS MORNING DROPPING HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM NEAR NESS CITY TO NEAR HAYS. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN
STEADY. WILL ADJUST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
LATER TODAY CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY. PREVIOUS FRONT
OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD MOVED BACK INTO SOUTHERN PART OF MY CWA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AIDED BY TSRA OUTFLOW. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
BECOME A PLAYER AGAIN TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS BACK UP.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGH. A NEGATIVE FACTOR WILL BE AN
APPARENT LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MY CWA IS IN BETWEEN THE
STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND AN EAST FLOW
ACROSS TX. IM NOT GOING TO CHANGE PREVIOUS POPS TOO MUCH, WHICH
IS LOWER POPS THAN YESTERDAY (WHEN THERE WAS A WEAK S/WV TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO POISED TO HEAD EAST) BUT STILL KEEPING A CHANCE
GOING. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY BUT
WHICH ARE ALSO QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN SOME OF THE MOS FCST NUMBERS.

THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL FURTHER
LOWER TSRA CHANCES. STILL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FIRE
AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS EXPECTED READINGS.

DAYS 3-7...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING THAT IVE
LAID OUT THE PAST 2 DAYS. A SOLID GSDM (WB, FEB 2007) STAGE 1 REGIME
IS IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEEK 1. THE
WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE
SEASONAL CYCLE, FORCING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTH OVER KANSAS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS AND STALL ON THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS AT
LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED
POPS SOME, BUT STILL KEPT THEM IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY AS STORM
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE IMPRESSIVE WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD ON SATURDAY SO AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC THAT ANY
STORMS WILL FORM IN MY CWA, EVEN ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. I BACKED OFF
TO ONLY A 10 ISOLATED POP IN THE NORTHWEST. I WOULD STILL NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS IN MY CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND THIS SHOULD DO FOR NOW.

THE GFS GOES OFF ON ITS OWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND, DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING A FRONT DOWN INTO KANSAS.
THIS STAGE 2 LIKE RESPONSE SEEMS A BIT FAST AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY
THE WEATHER CLIMATE DATA. SURE ENOUGH, THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODELS KEEP THE PATTERN FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SO IN
SUMMARY THE GFS SHOULD BE THROWN OUT FROM SUNDAY ON.

WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHEN THE CONVECTIVE FORCING CAN GET
ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND MAYBE SHIFT US OUT OF THE
STAGNANT STAGE 1 TO A STAGE 2 REGIME. THIS MAY VERY WELL OCCUR
DURING WEEK 2.

&&

.AVIATION...

MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES THIS MORNING. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
BY 12Z SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING A MENTION OF THIS IN THE UPCOMING 12Z
TAFS. GIVEN THE FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND, IFR/LIFR
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN SPOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN BURN
OFF BY 16Z OR SO. ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL
ARRIVE BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE
AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  67  91  68 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  89  66  91  68 /  30  20  10  10
EHA  93  65  94  66 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  91  66  93  67 /  30  20  20  20
HYS  86  66  88  69 /  40  30  20  20
P28  90  71  92  72 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN07/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
548 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

KSZ043-044-061>066-074>081-084>090-011100-
SCOTT-LANE-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-
STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-MORTON-
STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
548 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007 /448 AM MDT TUE JUL 31 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-031-045-046-011100-
TREGO-ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-
548 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING BUT RESIDUAL
RUNOFF FROM VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
THEN THERE MAY BE REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. FLOODING ISSUES, AT LEAST IN LOW LYING AREAS, WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WATER DRAINS OFF FIELDS. PERSONS ALONG THE WALNUT CREEK
FROM EASTERN NESS COUNTY INTO THE RUSH CENTER AREA SHOULD MONITOR
LEVELS CLOSELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC