A weak front/outflow boundary served as the focus for convective development during the late afternoon hours of August 16th. Several thunderstorms developed along a residual outflow boundary/stationary front stretching west to east just south of the Kansas/Nebraska border, and eventually merged into a convective system which produced the scattered thunderstorm wind gusts over northeast Kansas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A weak front/outflow boundary served as the focus for convective development during the late afternoon hours of August 16th. Several thunderstorms developed along a residual outflow boundary/stationary front stretching west to east just south of the Kansas/Nebraska border, and eventually merged into a convective system which produced the scattered thunderstorm wind gusts over northeast Kansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 2:54 PM CST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 354 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007 .DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SLOWLY TO NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THIS AFTERNOON. MCV MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY EAST ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REINFORCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA. GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MID TO UPPER 90S TO ITS SOUTH WITH MID TO UPPER 80S TO THE NORTH. 600 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY OF 150 TO 160. COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE RDA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SAG SOUTH WITH TIME AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS MCV MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. 850-300 MB THICKNESS SUGGESTS A EAST SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT. FOR FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING. REMNANTS OF TD ERIN TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME AFTERNOON CU. 53 MAIN QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE PROGRESSION AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIN. MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY VARYING IN THIS AREA...BUT SEVERAL SOLUTIONS BRING A SIGNIFICANT PORTION NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP BEST POPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO BE THE GREATEST. RAIN-COOLED LOW LEVELS ALSO COME NORTHEAST INTO THESE SAME AREAS SO KEPT COOLEST HIGHS HERE AS WELL...BUT RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS COULD BE FAR TOO LOW AND HIGH RESPECTIVELY IN A MORE INTENSE REMNANT SCENARIO. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH UPPER WAVES PASSING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRY TO SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND IF THIS WILL HAPPEN IS RATHER LOW. WILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL BUT AM NOT EXPECTING TRIPLE DIGITS TO BE COMMON. 65 && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BOUNDARY RELATIVELY STATIONARY ALONG NE/KS BORDER PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ISSUANCE. FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS MODELS DEPICT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND WEAK MCV OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE...KEPT CB FOR AFTERNOON HOURS AT EACH TOP/FOE/MHK. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MORE OF A SW COMPONENT AT EACH TOP/FOE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT...MORE NE AT MHK...BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE NEVERTHELESS. GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 14/15Z TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF HAZE OVERNIGHT...BUT POSSIBLE REDUCTION IN VIS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. 99 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 452 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-172115- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 452 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA...BUT MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATES 70 AND 35 AND MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND RETURN TO MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 454 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007 KSZ026-039-162230- JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE- 454 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007 THROUGH 530 PM CDT...THREE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST JEFFERSON AND NORTHEAST SHAWNEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORM OVER DOWNTOWN TOPEKA...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE EAST TOPEKA...MERIDEN...TECUMSEH AND GRANTVILLE. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 177 AND 188 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 531 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007 KSZ024-026-162300- JACKSON-JEFFERSON- 531 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007 THROUGH 600 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND CONTINUOUS DEADLY LIGHTNING. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OZAWKIE.
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:38 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Three inch limbs were blown down, and a barbecue grill was blown over.
One inch hail on the south side of Topeka at Pauline.
Wind measured on the SAWS instrument at Forbes Field. Wind gust blew out the tower cab door.
A power pole was partially blown down and into the street near the intersection of 52nd and Topeka Blvd. Six inch tree limbs knocked down powerlines at 57th and Topeka Blvd. Large limbs downed onto mobile homes.
Estimated 70 mph winds damaged a shop and barn door, blew over a carport, and blew over a child's play fort. The wind gust also blew a second shed that had been anchored and tied down approximately 25 feet from it's original location. Tree limbs 6 to 10 inches in diameter blown down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, August 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 53779, 53781, 53782, 53785, 53783.