Heavy Rain in Kansas, August 1, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE EARLY MORNING TSRA. ELEVATED ACTIVITY
FORMED AROUND MIDNIGHT. TYPICAL SCENARIO FOR ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY IS A DECREASING TREND TOWARD SUNRISE AND THIS SHOULD BE
NO EXCEPTION. LATER TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEHAVE MUCH AS IT
HAS THE LAST FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH I CANNOT FIND ANY EVIDENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX IN THE WIND FIELD OR OTHER FEATURE, THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH BUBBLING GOING ON TO INITIATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT. SINCE I DONT BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL BE ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD, ILL PLANNING ON
PULLING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MY NORTHEAST CWA.

NEXT FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LATE THURSDAY. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC
MODEL RUNS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT OR BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE
CWA. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY PRESENT IN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
AS A RESPONSE TO A S/WV TROUGH MOVING TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT
TODAY WILL HELP PROPAGATE IT SOUTH. SO, THIS MAY BE A FEATURE TO
WATCH FOR LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE WONT BE A PROBLEM AND I DONT
SEE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MID LEVELS TO WARM TOO MUCH. THUS,
THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF TSRA FIRING LATE THURSDAY IN NW
KS AND MOVING INTO MY CWA IN THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST 48-60 HOURS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

DAYS 3-7...

THE WEATHER CLIMATE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GSDM (WB, FEB 2007)
STAGE 1, AND THIS REGIME SHOULD HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STAGE 1 REGIME IN THE SUMMER TYPICALLY MEANS TROUGH OVER THE
PAC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, THE WESTERLIES WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE SEASONAL CYCLE. MODELS AGREE
THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND THE BAND OF WESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT TO OUR NORTH WILL GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WILL SET UP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE
WESTERLIES SHIFT SOUTH, HOT MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTED EAST INTO
THE PLAINS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE THE DOG DAYS OF AUGUST IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
READINGS AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

I DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A
VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
BY THIS WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERLIES. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON, SO THE WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE
GRIDS.  LACY

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS IN A MOIST AND VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OF THE TERMINALS MAY SEE A STORM, ALTHOUGH
IT IS MORE LIKELY AT KDDC AND KGCK THAN AT KHYS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING AND AREAS
OF FOG CANT BE RULED OUT EITHER. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE IFR/LOW MVFR
THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 16Z. WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  92  68 /  30  20  30  30
GCK  91  68  90  67 /  30  20  30  30
EHA  94  66  92  67 /  20  20  30  20
LBL  93  67  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  30  30
P28  90  71  93  71 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN07/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
527 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-021030-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
527 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 /427 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NEAR SCOTT CITY TO
GARDEN CITY COULD DUMP COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OR DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHER STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT ANY STORM THAT MIGHT DEVELOP COULD DUMP OUT SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
NEAR INTERSTATE 70.   HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

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