Drought in North Carolina, August 1 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1002 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH
MID-WEEK THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00 UTC UPPER AIR AND THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WITH -9 DEG C TEMPS AT
H5 AND WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE LEE
SLOPES...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
NOTHING HAS APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS...BUT I DID UP POPS ACROSS THE
SW NC MTNS...AND THE MTNS OF SC AND NE GA AS THIS AREA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A STRAY TSTM IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND LEE SLOPES FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS.

TOMORROW...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WED BUT
ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS SHOW WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW...NAM BRINGS ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER WAVE AND PVA OVER AREA...WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAK RIDGING AND
NVA. LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER MTNS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S...MAINLY 80S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD. LOWER LEVELS WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A WEAK HIGH PRRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WHICH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND OFF THE EAST COAST
ON FRIDAY. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WITH RATHER
MOIST AIR REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A GLANCE AT GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATES A WARM NOSE AROUND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY CAP ANY CONVECTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WITH A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WOULD BE IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WESTERN NC WHERE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET GOING DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY. 12Z NAM NOT AS PRONOUNCED WITH WARM NOSE ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENTLY
SHOWS MUCH MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION. ALL MOS PRODCUTS SUPPORT LOW
POPS SO WILL DISCOUNT NAMS QPF DEPICTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EXPECT MINIMAL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE THE
INSOLATION RECEIVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC PROGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE SE STATES DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS ALLOWED TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THEREFORE...SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
AVERAGE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST WILL ALSO FEATURE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS TRIES TO RETURN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS A WEAK UPPER LOW NE FROM GULF COAST.
IF THIS WOULD VERIFY THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPRED CONVECTION WOULD
CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GFS MAY BE SPINNING
THIS UPPER LOW UP TOO MUCH AS RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
THUS...HPC SOLUTION PROBABLY BEST AT THIS JUNCTURE WHICH UTILIZED
MAINLY A NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET...AND NO TAF SITES APPEAR TO BE THREATENED. THERE WAS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND FOG AROUND LAST NIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE LOWER TONIGHT...AND I DON/T THINK
THERE WILL BE ANY STRATUS OTHER THAN IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AROUND KAVL. I DID KEEP MVFR FOG/HAZE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT
AS WE WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF OUR CROSSOVER TEMPS...THOUGH
EVEN THAT MIGHT BE PESSIMISTIC. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
AT MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS...THOUGH
WINDS MAY VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTN IN
THE UPSTATE.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT KAVL...WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK EACH
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AFTN-EVE CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER MTNS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RB
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-010945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
536 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
900 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

NCZ059-063-010130-
NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
900 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH
930 PM EDT...

AT 859 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CULLOWHEE...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SYLVA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  THORPE...WEBSTER...TUCKASEGEE...GAY...CULLOWHEE AND BALSAM.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK