Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Nebraska, August 1, 2007

Name: Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Nebraska, August 1, 2007
Start: 2007-08-01T01:00
End: 2007-08-01T20:30
Location: Nebraska

August 1, 2007 · NWS GID · 8 events in 3 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $275,000
Crop damage: $1.0 million
Events: 8

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.

Excessive rainfall and runoff in Thayer, Fillmore and Buffalo counties from thunderstorms led to some extensive flooding. In Thayer County, 3 to 8 inches of rain fell in just a few hours causing flash flooding in the Big Sandy Creek basin. Dozens of bridges and roads in northeast Thayer County were damaged. The cost for repair could reach two hundred thousand dollars. Shortly before 4:00 AM, a loaded 133-car coal train derailed 24 cars into a passing 142-car empty coal train. Seven cars on the empty train derailed on impact. Runoff from the heavy rain is believed to have weakened the track. There was also extensive county road flooding southeast Fillmore County where 4 to 5 inches of rain was common. Later in the day, around noon, 4 to 6 inches of rain fell on the south side of Kearney in Buffalo County. There was widespread street flooding and some cars became stalled in bumper-deep water. A local car dealer had to move new cars on the lot as water encroached from a nearby canal.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 5:34 PM CST, 7 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 5:34 PM CST, 7 hours 26 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY APPEAR ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE...AND THINK THAT THIS COULD AGAIN LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL ADD A LATE DAY PROB30 GROUP
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007/

SHORT TERM...THE CHALLENGE OF THIS FORECAST IS COMING UP WITH
SOME COHERENT STRATEGY TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...NICE MCV ROTATING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. SATELLITE
AND LOCAL RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CENTER IS NEAR SUPERIOR. TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THIS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST SINCE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...
SUBSIDENCE AND ESSENTIALLY FAR LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA.
BELIEVE THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA MOST LIKELY TO CATCH RAINFALL THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO FIRE UP AROUND MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAWN. THIS IS PRETTY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWFA AND
THEN SPREADS A BIT EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HARD TO VALUE MODEL
OUTPUT IN THIS SCENARIO...AS THE NAM FIRES THINGS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE GFS HAS A HUGE CONVECTIVE MESS AFTER 06Z ALONG
I70. WILL FAVOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TONIGHT...AS
EARLY FOCUS IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN
DOWN SOUTH...HOLDING OFF ON FLOOD WATCH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
WHETHER ANYTHING WILL FORM INITIALLY...AND JUST WHERE IT MIGHT BE.

NEXT ISSUE IS APPROACHING FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REALLY HAVEN/T
HAD MUCH TIME TO DEAL WITH IT. ONCE AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN
ISSUE WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK SHEAR. HAVE TRIED
TO MESH WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AT THIS POINT ON THIS ISSUE.

LONG TERM...FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY ON THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING OR IF IT WILL
STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS LATELY WITH
SHOWING ANY REASONABLE TIMING OF BOUNDARY MOVEMENT...WILL AIM TOWARD
THE SREF POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING THEN SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AND MAYBE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE THEN ATTEMPTS BUILD BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ON SUNDAY. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
THEN SHOWN TO CRASH INTO THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  THIS
LOOKS TO KICK ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  SUBSIDENCE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE 90S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 8:30 PM CST, 4 hours 30 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
930 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
011200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
930 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY CONTAIN SOME
SMALL HAIL.

THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK
AROUND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. ANYONE
WITH RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CAN CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HASTINGS TO REPORT YOUR RAIN AMOUNT.
YOU CAN ALSO SEND IN A REPORT ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:00 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 heavy rain, 3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Thayer

When: August 1, 1:00 AM CST to 5:30 AM CST
Where: Thayer County, Alexandria
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 40.250, -97.380

Flash Flood, Thayer

When: August 1, 2:00 AM CST to 8:00 AM CST
Where: Thayer County, 4 mi WNW of Alexandria to Alexandria
Cause: Heavy Rain
Property damage: $200,000
Crop damage: $1.0 million
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 40.272, -97.450

Flash Flood, Fillmore

When: August 1, 4:18 AM CST to 7:18 AM CST
Where: Fillmore County, Strang
Cause: Heavy Rain
Property damage: $50,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 40.420, -97.580

Widspread flooding in southeast Fillmore County.

Heavy Rain, Buffalo

When: August 1, 10:30 AM CST to 1:00 PM CST
Where: Buffalo County, Kearney
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 40.700, -99.080

Just over 4 inches of rain was measured in southwest Kearney.

Heavy Rain, Buffalo

When: August 1, 10:30 AM CST to 1:00 PM CST
Where: Buffalo County, 2 mi S of Kearney
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 40.671, -99.080

Automated gage measured 4.07 inches of rain.

Heavy Rain, Buffalo

When: August 1, 10:30 AM CST to 1:42 PM CST
Where: Buffalo County, 1 mi SW of Kearney
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 40.690, -99.094

Average of 5 to 6 inches of rain in the Yanney Heritage Park area.

Flash Flood, Buffalo

When: August 1, 11:17 AM CST to 1:00 PM CST
Where: Buffalo County, Kearney
Cause: Heavy Rain
Property damage: $25,000
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 40.700, -99.080

Widespread street flooding in town. Some cars stalled in bumper deep water.

Heavy Rain, Fillmore

When: August 1, 6:30 PM CST to 8:30 PM CST
Where: Fillmore County, Shickley
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 40.420, -97.720

Four inches of rain was measured in Shickley.

What these are

Heavy Rain: Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Nebraska in 2007 Every state in 2007 This day in weather history Warnings in Nebraska, August 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 56031, 56033, 56043, 56035, 56039, 56041, 56037, 56046.