Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall repeatedly moved across the southern part of Clayton County during the evening of October 7, producing 3 to 5 inches of rain within about three hours. Several roads were under water, as reported by law enforcement officials and the public.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall repeatedly moved across the southern part of Clayton County during the evening of October 7, producing 3 to 5 inches of rain within about three hours. Several roads were under water, as reported by law enforcement officials and the public.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 1:59 PM CST, 3 hours 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 259 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...-SHRA CHANCES AGAIN TUE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z DEPICTED A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS EAST TODAY...PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT. WARM...SUMMERY AIRMASS REMAINED IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 2K J/KG. BEHIND THE TROUGH LURKED OCTOBER...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MUCH OF NEB. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD OVER THE SFC-850MB TROUGH GENERATING SOME SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU THE FLOW AIDING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS IA...LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 07/12Z NAM/GFS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL AND OFFER REASONABLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AT LEAST AT THE SFC/LOW LEVELS. THIS DESPITE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW BEYOND THE 48HR TIME-FRAME. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 07/12Z SHOWED THE 06/12Z RUNS VERIFIED QUITE WELL ACROSS NOAM WITH EDGE TO GFS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF THEIR 05/12Z RUNS WITH THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THRU 36HRS...MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE 05/12Z RUNS IS NOT GOOD. TREND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AT 00Z TUE...WITH GFS SHOWING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE SLOWING TREND WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES IN THE 36-84HR TIME-FRAME...AS IT NOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS THE SLOWER SLOWER SOLUTION IN THIS TIME-FRAME...WITH NAM A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IT AND FASTER ECMWF. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED BOTH MODELS REFLECTING REALITY QUITE WELL WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED BOTH MODELS REASONABLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE AGAIN THIS CYCLE. WITH MODELS AGAIN TRENDING TOWARD A COMPROMISE BUT SLOWER SOLUTION OF THEIR EARLIER RUNS...FAVORED A NAM/GFS BLEND THIS CYCLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE...AS ECMWF REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND GFS 07/12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS ITS SOLUTION. FOR THE SHORT TERM...LAST STRONGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND HELPS LIFT IT NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT/MON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE PLUME /PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/ REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. FORCING FOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS/HEAVY RAINS LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND IN THE BETTER MOISTURE PLUME. PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS WITH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING TRENDING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT LOOK GOOD. AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND ACCELERATES THE FRONT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT/MON. SFC-700MB FN CONVERGENCE INCREASES/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING. AS THIS CONVERGENCE/LIFT PUSHES INTO THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING. TRENDED CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST ARE FOR MON MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL CONSENSUS...INCREASED SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY MON AFTERNOON THEN LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE MON AFTERNOON. FIRST SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MON AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HGT X-SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LATE MON MORNING/AFTERNOON...TRENDED FORECAST GRIDS FOR LATE MORNING HIGHS...THEN STEADILY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. DRYING/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ROTATE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN TAKES A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIFTS TOWARD LOWER MI BY LATE WED... THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WRAPS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ STRATUS DECK SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE INTO WED NIGHT. CONTINUED SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE/TUE EVENING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...COLD POOL ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A 50- 100MB DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUE-WED NIGHT FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THESE PERIODS...WHICH WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES. TUE/WED TO BE MUCH MORE OCTOBER LIKE DAYS THAN THE PAST FEW. FAVORED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS TONIGHT/MON. GUIDANCE LOWS FOR MON NIGHT SIMILAR AND LOOK REASONABLE. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TUE...LEANED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS. WITH THE CLOUD BLANKET TUE NIGHT FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS. FAVORED COOLER GFS MEX MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE HIGHS ON WED. USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY 07/00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW REASONABLE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER AS RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM FOR THE THU-SUN PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN GFS TO ITS 06/00Z RUN THRU THE PERIOD. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF RUNS IN THE THU-SAT PERIODS AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...LENDING TO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD. WITH AREA LOOKING TO BE UNDER OR JUST EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY...QUIET AND SEASONABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THU-SUN. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN FAVORED LOW LAYING AREAS THU/FRI MORNINGS WITH THE CORE OF THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS NEAR/OVER THE AREA. FAVORED A BLEND OF GFS MEX/ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/ LOWS THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...THROUGH MONDAY LARGE CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24-30HRS AS VERY WARM/MOIST SWLY FLOW REPLACED BY MUCH COOLER NWLY FLOW AS COLD FRONT PASSES THE SITES BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. REGION SHOULD BE SEE PLENTY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SWLY FLOW FROM 8-13KTS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SHARPLY TO WEST/NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN VERY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...FORECASTS ARE GENEROUS IN LOW MVFR CEILINGS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY HEAVIER CORES. CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH THE STRATUS FIELD CLEARS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT IS NOT HIGH...AND THUS KEPT CEILINGS LOW THROUGH 18Z ON MONDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS AVIATION..........BINAU
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 354 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061-081000- ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE- FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE- MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON- WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA- 354 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT DESPITE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF...ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THIS ISOLATED AND BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...THROUGH ABOUT 7 OR 8 PM. ANY STORM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR DUE TO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT SEE A SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM. THIS MAY CAUSE RAPID STREAM RISES...PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND IN URBAN AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MONDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT SPOTTER GROUPS MAY WANT TO STAY ABREAST OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT 7 OR 8 PM IN CASE LOCAL ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. ANY REPORTS OF RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO CALL IS SCHEDULED. DAS/BINAU
The La Crosse radar (KARX), 132 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:23 UTC.
4 flash flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding was observed over the intersection of Highway 3 and Highway C7X. Highway C7X between Garber and Edgewood had water over it as well.
Elk Creek rose out of its banks with flooding on Iowa Avenue.
Water was over the road near the intersection of Harvest Road and Glacier Road. Bear Creek was also reported out of its banks with extensive lowland flooding.
A total of 5.21 inches of rain fell between 2:00 p.m. CST and 6:40 p.m. CST.
Bear creek flash flooded over Faucet Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 56769, 56773, 56774, 56771, 56779.