Flash Flood in Iowa, October 7, 2007

Name: Flash Flood in Iowa, October 7, 2007
Start: 2007-10-07T16:00
End: 2007-10-07T23:00
Location: Iowa

October 7, 2007 · NWS DVN · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $500,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.

On October 7, 2007 thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front and trained across Delaware county in northeast Iowa. Rainfall of 6 inches fell in only about 3 hours in the late afternoon, causing considerable flash flooding in the city of Manchester, and surrounding rural areas. Many streets and basements were flooded, with some cars under water in Manchester. In the rural areas, ditches overflowed damaging gravel roads. No deaths or injuries were reported.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 1:38 PM CST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 7, 1:38 PM CST, 2 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
238 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER INDIANA...AND A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN IOWA THROUGH
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
UP IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
WITHIN A MOISTURE PLUME FROM WESTERN MO THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS
PLUME SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...OR EVEN SHIFT WEST SLIGHTLY
AS CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ON THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT HERE WITH A FROPA EXPECTED IN THE
WEST AROUND 5 AM...AND AROUND NOON IN THE EXTREME EAST. FORCING
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP COVERAGE ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS POOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
QPF. SO WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...WE WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO THE
GOING FORECAST. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
TOMORROW DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL DEPEND OF PRE-FRONTAL HEATING...IF ANY. WE HAVE
GONE NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE GIVEN UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS. EVEN SO...WE MAY SEE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ...ERVIN...

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE SEEN IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA
MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE IN
PLACE BY TUESDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND CUT OFF GREAT LAKES LOW MAY
KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...DRY WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. IF UPPER LOW IS AS STRONG AS
PROGGED BY MODELS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRISK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL SEEM EXTREME WITH
TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES COOLER. THIS TEMPERATURE DROP TRANSLATES
INTO AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.          ...08...
&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE MOST CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOUND IN THE 3500 TO 5000 FT
AGL WINDOW...SOME ISOLATED 2500 ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CEDAR RAPIDS.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
21Z...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF CID.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 10Z...WHEN A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING LOW CIGS OF 800 TO 1000FT TO ALL TAF SITES WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM.
...ERVIN...

&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

08/ERVIN

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 7, 4:04 AM CST, 11 hours 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
504 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-081015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
504 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE
LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION
BY MIDWEEK WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA...AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 1:12 PM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes before

IAZ040-041-071945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
212 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH...

IN IOWA
     DELAWARE AND BUCHANAN

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     AURORA...COLESBURG...DELAWARE...DUNDEE...EARLVILLE...GREELEY...
     HAZLETON...INDEPENDENCE...LAMONT...MANCHESTER...MASONVILLE...
     ONEIDA...QUASQUETON...ROWLEY AND WINTHROP

AT 207 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF INDEPENDENCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE SHORT LIVED MINOR URBAN FLOODING DUE TO THE
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.  NEVER CROSS A FLOODED ROAD.

ERVIN

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 2:17 PM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 7, 3:57 PM CST, 3 minutes before

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The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 127 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:58 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Delaware

When: October 7, 4:00 PM CST to 11:00 PM CST
Where: Delaware County, 5 mi N of Manchester to 5 mi W of Manchester
Cause: Heavy Rain
Property damage: $500,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 42.552, -91.450

There were several reports of rainfall of 6 inches in the city of Manchester, with a trained spotter measuring 3 inches in one hour. Considerable basement and street flooding occurred, and there was some damage to gravel roads in the surrounding rural areas. Water was knee deep in some parts of the city, and many streets were closed. About 150 homes in the area had basement flooding or damage to foundations. The administration building at Manchester's school bus garage was flooded with two feet of water on the main floor. In only about 3 hours, the city received twice as much rain as it usually gets in the entire month of October.

What these are

Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Iowa in 2007 Every state in 2007 This day in weather history Warnings in Iowa, October 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 56154.