Hail in Indiana, May 26, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

ALL MODELS HAVING WEAK WRMFNT REMAINING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN TURNING INTO COLD FRONT AND MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY. AIR TO SOUTH OF FRONT IS MODERATELY WARM AND
UNSTABLE.

WITH THIS SCENARIO SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUING OVER AREA OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING ALOFT. TSRA BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH. NEITHER WIND SHEAR OR
STABILITY GOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLD IFR CIGS VSBYS AND
GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE IN CORE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREDODMINATE...BUT LCL VSYBS
4-5SM PSBL IN HAZE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IN THIS HUMID AIR
MASS. WINDS CONTINUING S TO SW 5-10 KNOTS UNTIL FRONT
PASSES...LIKELY AFT 18Z.

&&

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY/...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NRN IL AND SRN LWR MI. PATCHY THIN
SPOTS IN ALTOCU DECK HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DIM SUNSHINE RESULTING IN
AXIS OF INSTBY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TRIGGERING SCT SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA. OUTFLOW BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF CWA ALSO ENHANCING CU WITH ISOLD
TSRA. CLOUDS...MOIST GROUND AND HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE SLOWED THE
RISE IN TEMPS BUT THEY SHOULD STILL REACH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WL BE POPS.

NO SIG INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
IN LINE WITH CURRENT FCST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY SCT DIURNAL TSRA SHOULD END MID EVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN WRM
SECTOR ACRS MO INTO NRN IL AND OVRSPREAD SRN WI...SRN MI AND NW IN.
SOME SHOWER DVLPMNT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS PCPN COULD
REACH INTO FAR N CWA LATE SO HAVE CONTINUED HIGHS POPS THERE.
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP MINS ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE.

SUN...GFS/NAM AGREE THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY STALL HERE. WITH WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHENING SOME EXPECT ONGOING PCPN AT DAYBREAK TO SAG SLOWLY SE
ACROSS OUR CWA AND TO ALONG I-70 BY MIDDAY. DYNAMICS AND INSTBY WILL
NOT BE SIGNIF AND THUS SVR THREAT NOT EXPECTED THOUGH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE. SIMILAR TO TODAY SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE A
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE AND REACH THE LOWER 80S WHILE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND EARLIER PCPN SHOULD REMAIN IN MID OR
UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM.../SUN NIGHT THRU MID WEEK/...SYS CURRENTLY OVR THE NRN
PLAINS XPCTD TO PUSH EWD ACRS THE NRN GRTLKS AND INTO SERN CANADA BY
MON. WK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYS XPCTD TO STALL OUT OVR OR
NR THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MON NIGHT. WL KEEP POPS
GOING INTO MON NIGHT AS MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST MOD AMOUNTS OF SFC
INSTABILITY AND LTL CAPPING ON MON. 500MB HGTS BEGIN TO RISE BY TUES
AS NEXT SYS DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS...SO THIS SHOULD CAP THINGS OFF
FOR MINIMAL PCPN THREAT BY TUES UNTIL NEXT SYS ARRIVES LTR IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-271015-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
610 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007 /510 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS A THREAT
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...BUT LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A THREAT WITH ANY STORM.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CO