Flooding and Damaging Wind in Illinois, May 26, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
120 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...

351 AM CDT

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION HIGHLY EVIDENT IN EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NRN PLAINS...WITH SERIES OF WEAKER MORE
ILL-DEFINED S/WV LIFTING FROM CNTRL PLAINS TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
LAKES. BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAY INDICATES LLVL
SOUTHERLY FLOW 30-40 KTS JUST BLO 850 HPA OVER LAST FEW HRS...WITH
AREA OF ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN 1/2 OF CWA.
APPEARS SOME DECREASE/VEERING IN LLVL FLOW AT BLUE RIVER LAST 2 HRS
SUGGESTING MINOR S/WV PASSING THRU...AND THIS TREND SEEMS TO BE
PICKED UP BY 06Z WRF/NAM WITH DCRSG/VRG 850 HPA FLOW 09-12Z. THUS
SUSPECT WE MAY SEE A DECREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NXT
SVRL HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK BUT SUSTAINED LLVL WAA OVER SHALLOW
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE WIDELY SCT
SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT THIS MORNING.

AS NRN PLAINS UPPER LVL LOW LIFTS SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST
THIS AFTN...WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS CNTRL IA/IL/IN
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS FCST AREA AND ACROSS WI/LK MICH BY
EVENING. WRF/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS IN WARM SECTOR...WITH SFC DWPTS IN
LOW 60S...SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN
400-600 J/KG RANGE BY 21Z. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE LIMITING FACTORS IN DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH APPEARS WEAK S/WV LIFTING NE FROM EASTERN
OK TO LIFT THIS WAY DURG AFTN HOURS. THUS SHRA/TSRA THREAT XPCTD TO
REMAIN THRU AFTN HOURS. NOTE THAT SPC HAS REMOVED AREA FROM SLGT
RISK TODAY GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOCATION SOUTH OF DEEPER
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. BETTER LLVL FORCING ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AS
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO FCST AREA WITH SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO...THUS POPS MAINTAINED TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY AS FRONT SLIDES ACROSS CWA. NORTHWESTERN CWA EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SUN AFTN AS COOLER/DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES...THOUGH
WILL MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH THOUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

ACCOUNTING FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS...SFC TRAJECTORIES/950 HPA TEMPS
SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR 80 FAR SOUTH TODAY...WHILE LOWER 70S NORTH EXCEPT
WHERE ESE FLOW NEAR IL LAKE SHORE TO LIMIT TO 60S. HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPS A FEW DEGS TONIGHT IN MOIST PREFRONTAL LLVL REGIME...AND
ADJUSTED TEMPS ESPECIALLY NRN IN NEAR LAKE MICH SUN WHERE FROPA AND
N FLOW TO COOL THOSE AREAS. MORE LAKE INFLUENCE MON AS ENE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EASES ACROSS CWA SO NRN AREAS COOLER ESPECIALLY
NEAR LM.

NO BIG CHANGES EXTENDED PORTION ATTM...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS...

MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS WITH CONVECTION DVLPGIN VCTY OF WARM
FRONT.  SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST S OF
MLI-NR JOT-GYY-JUST N OF SBN. MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL BE N OF THIS LN...ACROSS NWRN AND N CNTRL IL...INTO THE N
SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. SATLT IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW FRESH
CONVECTION POPPING UP IN A LN FROM NERN MO...NR IRK-NWRN IL BTWN MIL
AND GBG.  THIS LINE WILL CONTNUE TO DVLP NEWD ACROSS NRN PORTION OF
TERMINAL AREA THRU MID AFTN.   AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF AREA BY
ABOUT 00Z...CONVECTION WILL BCM MORE ISOLD-SCT IN COVERAGE SO WILL
GO TO VCTS AFT WARM FROPA.  MORE ORGANIZED SHWRS/TSTMS LIKELY AGAIN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES EWD WELL TO N OF
AREA...RESULTING IN COLD FROPA FROM W-E ACROSS RGN AFT 06Z.   WINDS
WILL BE GENLY ARND 5 KTS AHD OF WRM FRONT ERLY THIS AFTN...THEN
INCRS A BIT TO NR 10 KTS.  WIND DIR...TO SHIFT FROM SSELY AHD OF
WARM FRONT...TO SSLWY BY LATE THIS AFTN...THEN VEERING INTO W AFT
COLD FROPA AFT 06Z.

CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VRBL ALG/AHD OF WARM FRONT WITH IFR CONDS IN
PCPN AREAS...LIFTING TO MVFR/OCNL VFR BHD FRONT.

MERZLOCK

&&

.MARINE DISCUSSION REGARDING 3 PM FORECAST...

A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PASSING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN FORCE 1 RANGE THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT A FEW HOURS OF WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. COLD STABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE
LAKE SURFACE COMBINED WILL KEEP WAVES GENERALLY BELOW 4 FT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.

MERZLOCK

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
430 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-262130-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
430 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WHILE NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AGAIN...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
SUNDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-766-262130-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
430 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BECOMING LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO