Hail in Indiana, May 1, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
324 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SE
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST AND A COLD FNT TO THE SW. AS
FAR AS TIMING GOES THE GFS HAS COME MORE INLINE WITH THE NAM WHICH
WAS SLOWER OF THE MODELS. THERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. LIFTED INDEXES ON BOTH MODELS DROP TO -6 TO
-8. THE HEIGHT OF WEB BULB ZERO WAS RUNNING 9K TO ALMOST 11K. THIS
WOULD INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE HAIL. THE
ONE FACTOR WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE GFS PROJECTED PCPN AMOUNTS ONLY SHOW
.10. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA TONIGHT ENDING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY IN
KY. FOR WED THE MODELS HAVE GONE WETTER THEN THE FORECAST YESTERDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE CONSISTANT WITH KEEPING A CHANCE OF PCPN OVER
THE AREA. THE CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLOW FROM THE NE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TODAYS 12Z RUNS HAVE BROUGHT LAYER MOISTURE AND
PRECIP FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA AS COMPARED TO MONDAYS 12Z RUN.
H5 LOW SNEAKS NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO INDIANA.  SFC BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE CWA
WHICH WILL HELP TO SPREAD SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT COULD GET
NORTH OF THERE AS WELL.  SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT ON THE
300-310K SURFACES AND CONDENSATION PRESS DEFICITS ARE BELOW 5MB FOR
THOSE LEVELS AS WELL.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND TAPERED TO NO POPS IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA.

WITH CLOUD COVER AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 10C WILL GO SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

THURSDAY...300-310K ISENTROPIC SURFACES STILL SHOWING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AT OR BELOW 5MB THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  AND
THE H85 WARM FRON IS ALMOST BISECTING THE CWA SO WILL HANG ON TO THE
LIKLEY POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AND STILL TAPER TO NIL
POPS UP IN THE FAR NORTH.  TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE CWA WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A BLOCKING
PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE GFS BRINGS
A LOW UP CLOSE TO THE OHIO VALLEY BUT WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THE WAVE CAN MAKE IT TOO FAR NORTH UNDER THE STRONG RIDGING.
OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST AND GRADUAL WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER LOWER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND A COLD
FRNT TO THE SW. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER AREA. AT
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THEY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 22Z.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA THIS EVENING ENDING THE
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO INDIANA ON THURSDAY BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SH
LONG TERM...SALLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

INZ028-029-035-043-044-051-060-067>070-020945-
WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-PARKE-VIGO-SULLIVAN-KNOX-
DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-
532 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007 /432 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WABASH AND EAST
FORK WHITE RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN 200 PM EDT AND 900 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH AND PARTS OF THE
EAST FORK WHITE RIVERS INTO FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-030-031-036>042-045>049-054>057-065-020945-
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-DECATUR-
532 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN 200 PM EDT AND 900 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ052-053-061>064-071-072-020945-
CLAY-OWEN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
532 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN 400 PM EDT AND 1000 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

...REMOVED SENTENCE FROM SECOND GROUP DAY ONE...