Damaging Wind in Indiana, July 4, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPS AHEAD AND PRECIP CHCS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWING IS BRIEF DUE TO WEATHER WATCH.

OBSERVED DATA INDICATES MCS REMNANT STILL LIMITING SUNSHINE TODAY
OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. WHERE SUN WAS AVAILABLE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED...IN NE COUTIES NEAR MUNCIE WHERE UPPER
WIND FIELDS BIT STRONGER...TO SW AND SRN COUNTIES WHICH HAD AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS AID DEVELOPMENT. AT ANY RATE AS OF MID
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS WEAK AND ISOLATED ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER
SOUTHWEST BREEZES.

MODELS STILL HAVE NOT DONE TOO WELL WITH TODAYS PCPN THOUGH THEY
HINTED AT HIGHEST QPFS OCCURRING JUST EAST AND JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FCST AREA WHICH IS OCCURING. ALL MODELS GENERATE SOME QPF TONIGHT AS
WEAK SFC FNT WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT GENERATES SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN BETTER HEATED AREAS LATE THIS AFTN AND WITH SOME
BETTER FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG SFC FNT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT OF SFC FNT BUT BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO CHC STORMS
THURSDAY APPEAR BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHTS BUT WILL NOT
ADJUST TIMING AT ALL SINCE MODELS OFTEN MOVE SFC FNTS TOO FAST
DURING SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILD IN TO DRY
MOVE PCPN CHCS OUT OF HERE AND WARM TEMPS UP. NO CHANGES MADE TO
GOING FCST OF LOWS NEAR 70 AND HIGHS NEAR 90.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOME TO INCLUDE RAIN CHCS
FURTHER SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE
COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE IN NW FLOW POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TX. BECAUSE OF VARIATIONS IN SOLUTIONS BETWEEN
MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN...CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH SO WHAT
CHANGES WERE MADE WERE SLIGHT...AND CONSISTENT WITH HPC AND
ADJACENT OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

KIND-88D WAS SHOWING AN AREA OF TRWS ACRS SW IN LATE THIS MRNG
AHEAD OF A S/W ACRS CNTRL IL. MEANWHILE...VSBL SAT PIX WERE  SHOWING
A FEW BREAKS IN THE AC DECK ACRS CNTRL IN WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATMS
TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH LAPS CAPES AT 15Z TO 1000 J/KG ACRS SRN IN.
EXPECT THE BREAKS IN THE AC AND INCRS IN LOW LVL MOIST FM THE SW
THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE THE ATMS BECOME INCRSLY UNSTABLE AND ALLOW SCT
TRWS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CD FNT THAT WAS ACRS NRN IL AND SWRN IA
THIS MRNG. MODEL TIME SECS AND CU PROGS FAVOR CU DECK FORMING AROUND
4K FT BUT WL LIKELY BE SOME MVFR CIGS WITHIN THE STORMS AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM ACRS IL AND IA LAST NGT. WL END THE STORMS NEAR SS AS
LITTLE UPR FORCING AVAILABLE WITH LOW AND MID LVL JETS WELL TO THE E
ACRS THE APLCHNS. WITH WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT AND MODEL TIME SECS
SHOWING 90% LOW LVL RH OVERNGT...EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR FOG. COULD
GET WORSE DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE TAF SITE RECEIVES RAIN
TODAY. WL HAVE A BETTER IDEA FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE.

&&

PUBLIC...DT

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SOUTHERN INDIANA UNTIL 10 PM EDT.
&&

AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-062>065-072-051000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JENNINGS-
309 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. REMEMBER...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ060-061-067>071-051000-
SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
309 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007 /209 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT (9 PM CDT)...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID UNTIL 10 PM EDT (9 PM CDT). REMEMBER...DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH