Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, April 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS TAF PERIOD AS CD FRONT WL PUSH ACRS THE TAF SITES DURG THE
FIRST 8 HRS OF THE TAF. MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS WL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CD FRONT. SOME OF THE
STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH CYCLONIC SFC FLOW WL SHUD
RESULT IN PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE STATE...

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR SFC LOW PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
NO GLARING INCONSISTENCIES WERE NOTED.  WILL USE A BLEND.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE E/NE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO NEAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS MOVES E/NE AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  THIS SURFACE SYSTEM IS AIDED BY AN EQUALLY STRONG H5
SHORT WAVE.  THROUGH THIS MORNING EXPECT SFC WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO PUSH SB CAPES INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE.  MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE A
SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO.  HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.

ALONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.  PWATS ARE IN THE 1.0-1.5 RANGE SO DOWNPOURS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH NOT VERY LONG LIVED.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT HAVE LOWERED POPS AND CUT THEM OUT
ALL TOGETHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WITH LARGE H5 LOW
LOOMING OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA HAVE PUT IN A
LOW POP FOR WED IN THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS IN THE COLD BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS WILL DO A 180 GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PD.
FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM MID WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT ISSUE A
FREEZE WATCH THIS MORNING TO KEEP HEADLINES TO A MINIMUM.  WILL
INSTEAD HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.  OUTSIDE OF THE ADDITION OF POPS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE INTO
THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA THE FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

NO CHANGES MADE TO SUNDAY OR MONDAY FORECAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...SALLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
536 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

INZ021-030-031-036>042-045>049-052>057-062>065-069>072-040945-
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-CLAY-OWEN-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
536 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 /436 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ILLINOIS AND MOVE INTO INDIANA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...OUR WEB SITE OR YOUR
FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DESCEND UPON CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HARM TENDER VEGETATION THAT HAS ARRIVED
EARLY DUE TO THE EXTENDED WARM SPELL. FREEZE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ028-029-035-043-044-051-060-061-067-068-040945-
WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-PARKE-VIGO-SULLIVAN-GREENE-
KNOX-DAVIESS-
536 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 /436 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ILLINOIS AND MOVE INTO INDIANA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...OUR WEB SITE OR YOUR
FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

LOWLAND FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG WABASH RIVER IN WESTERN INDIANA AND
ALONG THE WHITE RIVER IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. RAIN TODAY MAY SLOW
THE FALL OF THE WHITE AND WABASH RIVERS AND COULD PROLONG CURRENT
HIGH WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DESCEND UPON CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HARM TENDER VEGETATION THAT HAS ARRIVED
EARLY DUE TO THE EXTENDED WARM SPELL. FREEZE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SALLY