A strong cold front moved through central and southeast Illinois during the afternoon hours of the 18th. Severe thunderstorms developed along and ahead of this front.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
A strong cold front moved through central and southeast Illinois during the afternoon hours of the 18th. Severe thunderstorms developed along and ahead of this front.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 18, 2:01 PM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 301 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 154 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007 UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN MN ACCORDING TO IR SAT IMAGERY. DEEP DRY SLOT PUSHING THRU THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WATCHING THE COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH AS WELL...WAITING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS ANTICIPATED CONVECTION IS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND THE NEXT IS ANOTHER FRONT DUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...IN ADDITION TO THE PATTERN SHIFT IN GENERAL. MODELS HAVE BEEN LACKING CONSISTENCY...AND THIS TENDENCY IS CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM. BEHIND THIS LOW...THE GFS REMAINS VERY AMPLIFIED...WITH ALMOST MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE MED-LONG RANGE OUT OF CANADA...BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY MARGINALLY LESS SO. MOS IS STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP. AS FOR THE OTHER MODELS...THE CANADIAN IS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR THE GFS FOR THE LONG TERM. LOOKING AT TELECONNECTIONS...THE AO IS HINTING AT RUNNING NEGATIVE...OR INTO A PHASE OF HIGHER ARCTIC PRESSURE. THIS PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE CONUS. GFS/ECMWF/CAN GLOBAL ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT COOLER AIR IS ON THE WAY...MAIN DIFFERENCE IS IN THE DELIVERY. FOR THAT...LOOKING TO THE NAO SHOWS A NEGATIVE PHASE AFTER DAY 2-3...RESULTING IN A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL HIGH/ICELANDIC LOW...OR LESS AMPLIFICATION. CONSIDERING THIS...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALMOST MERIDIONAL FLOW OF THE GFS IS LESS LIKELY. ALSO...STRONG PHASING WITH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IS ALSO LESS LIKELY. ALL OF THE SIGNS WITH THE TELECO IN THE ENSEMBLES POINTS TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/CAN GLOB SOLN FOR THE MED/LONG RANGE. EITHER WAY...COOLER TEMPS BEHIND TWO VIGOROUS SYSTEMS SEEMS THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE FORECAST. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... WATCHING THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...CU FIELD IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE JUST YET. WATCHING THE LEADING LINE OF CU ALMOST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. DWPTS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THAT LINE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WHETHER OR NOT INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ALL THE WAY THROUGH IS THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. FORECASTING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE...WITH SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FROM THE I-55 CORRIDOR TO THE IL/IN BORDER. INTENSE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO 70KTS AT 700MB. STORMS LIKELY TO BE DESTROYED ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...IF THEY FORM. DRY AIR MIXING DOWN AS WELL...VERY QUICKLY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY. FORECAST WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN...BUT HESITATE TO GO HIGHER AS ENVIRONMENT IS JUST A LITTLE TOO STRONG IN SPEED SHEAR. LONG TERM...TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY... BRIEF WARMING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE. COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON THE ABILITY TO RETURN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE GULF IS NOT EXACTLY OPEN AND RH FIELDS ARE A BIT WANTING IN THE MODELS. BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST IS DRY AND COOL. HJS && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007 VERY DEEP 982 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MN WEST OF MSP MAY DEEPEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN WI/MN BORDER BY SUNSET...TO THE NE MN ARROWHEAD BY 12Z/FRI AND TO NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z/FRI. THIS TO BRING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FEW TO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IL RIGHT NOW. COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH TEMPS GETTING IN LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN IL BY I-57. HIT DEC AND CMI HARDER WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER VSBYS FROM HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST BY PIA AND SPI WHERE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT AND LOSING THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WSW WINDS FRI MORNING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. USED NAM-WRF LOW LEVEL RH FIELD TO BRING IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCU CLOUDS OF 2 TO 3 KFT BETWEEN 04Z-08Z FROM THE WEST. HUETTL && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038- 040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 222 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047>051-191100- CASS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA- SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD- 222 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO INDIANA DURING EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL MATERIALIZE EAST OF I-55. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR UNTIL 7 PM TODAY WHEN A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM TODAY FROM I-55 EAST. ILZ043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-191100- CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT- DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT- RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION- 222 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO INDIANA DURING EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM TODAY AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-55. THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR UNTIL 7 PM TODAY WHEN A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM TODAY. HUETTL/BARNES
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:23 UTC.
8 thunderstorm wind, 5 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were blown down on Lake Shore Drive. A hospital roof was damaged, and debris broke car windows.
Golf ball sized hail was reported on the east side of Lake Decatur.
Trees were damaged, a trampoline was blown into a tree in a tree, and a semi truck flipped over.
Trees and power lines were blown down.|
A tree was blown down on Kirby Street.|
Numerous tree branches were blown down.|
Numerous tree limbs and power lines were blown down.|
Numerous trees and power lines were blown down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 62541, 62418, 62419, 62542, 62543, 62420, 62548, 62544, 62545, 62546, 62421, 62422, 62547.