Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, March 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...TORNADO WATCH 52 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM...

.SHORT TERM...SQUALL LINE NOW ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST AND POISED TO ENTER APALACHEE BAY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE LINE HAS BEEN MUCH GREATER THAN MODEL
PROJECTIONS AND HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS
TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. THIS...ALONG WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT
SIGNATURE ALOFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
AS FAR AS THE SHEAR...06Z CHS SOUNDING CONFIRMS SHORT TERM MODEL
PROJECTIONS OF EXTREMELY HIGH 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF
500 M2/S2 ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EASTERN ZONES. FEEL THIS LOCAL MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACHING SQUALL LINE BUT MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINING TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES.

AS THE LINE SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE 850 MB
JET WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 KNOTS.
LIKEWISE HELICITY WILL DECREASE BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL TO WARRANT THE
CONTINUED MENTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BY
00Z...MODELS INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE MADE IT INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERE THREAT SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. 40 KNOT JET WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...BUT WITH MORE STABLE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO MIX DOWN.

AS FRONT STALLS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA...BUT A
SATURATED COLUMN WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. OMEGA VALUES
ARE HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD DUE MAINLY TO THE CONTRIBUTION FROM
ADIABATIC OMEGA BETWEEN THE 300K AND 305K SURFACES. THIS WILL
WARRANT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A RAW DAY IN STORE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 10.

UPPER LEVEL KICKER FINALLY ARRIVES BY SUNDAY MORNING...PUSHING
PRECIP AXIS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE AFTER ALL THE SOUTHEAST SEVERE
WX WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TAKE QUITE A DIP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION BY MONDAY MORNING. FREEZE
WARNINGS HAVE BEGUN ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS AREA AND WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OF SQUALL LINE IN
LATEST SET OF TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST.
HAVE INCLUDED SVR WIND GUSTS IN TSTMS IN KSSI TAF...WITH NEAR SVR
FOR KJAX AND KCRG...ALONG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSTMS. WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. THANX FOR COORD CHS

&&

.MARINE...FCST APPEARS TO BE PANNING OUT...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL EVALUATE PRIOR TO ISSUANCE...
BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF TONIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO
EXTEND LENGTH OF ADVISORIES A FEW MORE HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS UNTIL SAT...WHEN DRY AIR REALLY
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE N 2/3 OF THE AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT ENUF DRY AIR MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TO NECESSITATE A FIRE WX
WATCH FOR THE N SUWANNEE VALLEY...BUT THERE IS ENUF UNCERTAINTY TO
WAIT ONE MORE PACKAGE BEFORE DOING THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  41  67  41 /  70   0  20  20
SSI  66  49  65  49 /  70  40  20  20
JAX  71  46  65  47 /  70  50  30  30
SGJ  75  52  64  51 /  70  70  40  30
GNV  73  48  64  45 /  70  60  40  30
OCF  74  50  65  46 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

DEESE/CARROLL/TRABERT/SHASHY/HURLBUT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
100 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-020700-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
100 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 52 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST...

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.DISCUSSION...
A SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND TORNADOES. ANY
TORNADOES THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO VIOLENT
WITH EXTENDED DAMAGE PATHS.

DAMAGING TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. PERSONS
WITH NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIOS SHOULD ENSURE THEIR RADIO IS IN
GOOD WORKING ORDER AND SET TO ALARM THIS OVERNIGHT. MONITOR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SQUALL LINE WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED
UNTIL THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

DEESE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
124 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

GAZ132-133-020700-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
124 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COFFEE AND JEFF
DAVIS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 200 AM EST...

AT 124 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROXTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND PRIDGEN...BROXTON...SNIPESVILLE...DENTON AND HAZLEHURST
THROUGH 200 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ARS