Hail in Georgia, June 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...THEN WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. A WARM SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETURN OVER THE
AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED EARLIER AS LEE
TROUGH CONVERGENCE TRIGGERING SCATTRERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPSTATE OUT AHEAD OF WEAK VORT APPROACHING OUT OF ALABAMA.
COLD FRONT ALSO MOVING SE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY
PROPGATE INTO THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST CAPES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS...BUT LOOKS LIKE CAPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
EVERYWHERE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THEREFORE ...GRIDS
WILL REFLECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY 06Z. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NW WITH
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. USED A MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND A MAV/MET
BLEND ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THE AXIS OF 5H RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWFA. THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
THE MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE VERY STRONG...AND EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. HAVE KEPT POP JUST UNDER SLIGHT CHC
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY...WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE 18-20C. MAX
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (MID TO UPPER
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS)...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY WARM DAY FRIDAY...AS 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A LITTLE MORE LLVL MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW FRIDAY...AND MORE INSTABILITY. HAVE SLIGHT
CHC POP OF SHRA AND TSRA FOR FRIDAY AFTN..AND LOW CHC IN THE WESTERN
MTN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN
BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DEEP LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NWLY FLOW.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WASH OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. MODEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN WHATS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY. WENT
CLOSE TO HPC ON POPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF PERIODS OF RETURN
FLOW AND POSSIBLE LINGERING BNDRY(S). HAVE TRENDED WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POP (ESP WITH AFTN CONVECTION)...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SFC TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH CONTINUED WLY TO NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN TAF CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. RADAR ALREADY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC GENERALLY ALONG LEE TROUGH.
MOVEMENT IS EASTERLY SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT KGSP AND KGMU FROM 19-21Z. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION VCTS
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THEN UPDATE TO
ADD THUNDER AT SITES WHERE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR...BUT CEILINGS AND VSBY
WOULD GO MVFR IF A CORE OF A STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA BY ABOUT 03Z...SO SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW
THEN. ALSO...EXPECT MID LEVEL CEILINGS AFTER 00Z TO SCATTER BY
06Z. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER RAIN OCCURS. WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF FOG OUT FOR NOW.

FOR THE OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDTIONS TO PREDOMINATE FROM LATE WED
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CEILNGS AND VSBY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-061000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
551 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

SCZ006-010>012-019-051830-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENWOOD-LAURENS-
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...
   GREENVILLE...GREENWOOD AND LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM
   EDT...

AT 131 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ANDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SMALL
HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

SCZ012-051900-
LAURENS-
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LAURENS COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...

AT 219 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLINTON...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAURENS...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

GAZ029-052030-
ELBERT-
323 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COMER...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
ELBERTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELBERTON BY 335 PM EDT.
  RUCKERSVILLE BY 350 PM EDT.
  LAKE RUSSELL BY 355 PM EDT.

PEOPLE IN ELBERT COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ELBERTON...
RUCKERSVILLE AND LAKE RUSSELL...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

NED