Damaging Winds in Texas, June 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
512 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

.UPDATE...SEVERE WEATHER WATCH 346 HAS BEEN ISSUED SO UPDATE IS
FORTHRCOMING. CONVECTIVE LINE IS INCREASING AS IT MOVES ESE TOWARD
AREA. POTENTIAL FOR WIND EVENT IS THE MAIN CONCERN THOUGH INFLOW
IS WEAK. STILL...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY IS
WHETHER MCS CURRENTLY OVER THE BEND REGION WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OR
DIE OVER NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WHETHER ANY BOUNDARIES FROM THE
CONVECTION...IF THE FORMER IS TRUE...WILL IMPACT AREA LATER IN THE
DAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTENANCE
OF CONVERSION...SINCE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON (Q/G
FORCING IS POSITIVE)...AND JET STREAK IS ON THE UNFAVORABLE SIDE.
THUS...ANY FORCING WILL HAVE TO BE SURFACE-BASED AND THERE IS A LOT
OF CAPE AND NOT MUCH IN CIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WILL BE WEAK. IN SHORT...NOT CLEAR CUT SITUATION AND AT
THIS TIME WILL MONITOR LATEST TRENDS BUT AT THIS TIME WILL PUT LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION IS NOT STRONG
DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT (IF NOT SUPPRESSIVE TO
IT) AND GUIDANCE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
CHANGES AS NECESSARY AND MONITOR LATEST TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING
FORECAST...AS AT TIMES MODELS HAVE BEEN USELESS IN THE FIRST 12-24
HOURS AS OF LATE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE OVER WITH BY TONIGHT AND
WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN PRECIP. APPEARS NEXT TWO PERIODS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIRMASS. FIRST PERIOD POPS LISTED BELOW SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXPECT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OF
MCS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
BE BELOW SCA IF NOT SCEC...LATTER WILL BE BORDERLINE.

AVIATION...NOT TO SOUND AS A BROKEN RECORD...BUT THUNDER IN TAFS
WILL BE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WITH MOST MENTION OF THUNDER BETWEEN
14Z AND 20Z.  EXPECT AT LEAST A CI SHIELD THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS DURG THE AFTN. SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUES FOR TAFS
OVNT...MAYBE SOME MVFR BR LATE OVR KVCT AND KALI.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FORECAST THU AND FRI LOOKS
DRY...WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WED NIGHT THRU FRI. UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO FRI. HIGHER MOISTURE/PW
ASSOC WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL ALSO
GET PULLED NWD INTO THE ERN CWA ON FRI...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLD STREAMER SHOWERS. WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST YET. A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPR LVL RDG WILL DVLP OVERHEAD ON SUN AND MON...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLD RWS. FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE GHOST POPS IN THE GRIDS AND HAVE NO MENTION IN
ZONES GIVEN THIS IS DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  75  92  80  91  /  40  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          92  73  93  78  92  /  50  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            99  79 104  80 104  /  60  10   0   0   0
ALICE             95  73  97  78  95  /  40  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          91  78  91  81  90  /  40  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           95  74 100  78  99  /  60  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        94  74  95  80  94  /  40  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  90  81  89  /  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
549 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-061100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
549 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER
INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE BAYS AND GULF
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE THEMSELVES THIS MORNING.

GW/JTR